Is he a left-winger in disguise, or are conservatives disgusted with him for other reasons?

1-31-08 update – also see new article McCain lacks straight talk and conservative positions in debate  (since this article was originally written, McCain's American Conservative Union has dropped even further, to 65)

The media has been full of speculation lately regarding whether John McCain has become so liberal he may follow James Jeffords’ lead and desert the GOP. But is McCain really that liberal?

In the past year, he has voted against tax cuts, helped to kill a bill that would have put a stop to open-ended military commitments in Kosovo, and voted in favor of diverting $1 million in defense spending to federal education. He advocates universal healthcare insurance. He has flip-flopped several times on abortion, and is a strong advocate of federally funding research on aborted fetuses. He is not supportive of school vouchers. In 1998, he voted in favor affirmative action and a bill setting up quotas for women and minorities. In 1999, he voted to ban cheap handguns and require safety locks on guns. This spring McCain co-sponsored a bill with Senator Joe Lieberman to require background checks at gun shows.

However, McCain’s voting record is not out of step with many other Republicans in the Senate. His lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union is an 85, the same as Orrin Hatch’s lifetime rating. Hatch is not exactly considered a moderate or liberal Republican. Although McCain’s scores have dropped slightly in recent years, they are still fairly close to his lifetime rating. In 1999, he received a score of 77, and in 2000, he received an 81, one point above Republican Olympia Snowe of Maine and three points below Republican Gordon Smith from Oregon. Compared to James Jeffords, his scores are fairly high. James Jeffords received an overall lifetime rating of 27 from the American Conservative Union, well under conservative Democrat John Breaux’s lifetime rating of 47. McCain’s lifetime rating and recent lower ratings are well above the ratings of conservative Democrats. Democrat Robert Byrd of Virginia, a moderate Democrat, has a lifetime ACU rating of 31.

So why is everyone so quick to predict McCain may leave the GOP? It is likely a combination of two reasons: one, his dislike and/or jealousy of George Bush, and two, his championing of causes that are not necessarily conservative, such as campaign finance reform and fighting big tobacco. It is his backing of these types of issues that should make conservatives wary. Do conservatives really want to be led by someone whose leadership is on issues that are not really conservative (and oddly not necessarily terribly liberal either)?

Campaign finance reform, which is currently awaiting approval again in the House, sounds acceptable to many non-philosophical conservatives in theory, but if they actually stopped to research the effects of this particular bill, would be much more hesitant to rally behind John McCain. His campaign finance law would in effect cut off one group from First Amendment protections, while giving a First Amendment monopoly to another. The realities of modern day are that in order to get your message out across the country, e.g. TV, newspaper ads, etc, you need money. This leaves just two groups in society that are able to get a message out to the public. The first group, the left-leaning media conglomerate, already owns the primary means of publicity. The only way to compete with them is to buy expensive ads from them. The groups that can afford to buy ads comprise the second group. Since few individuals can afford the thousands and even millions of dollars required to run an ad that will have any effect on a major race, anyone outside of the media who wants to influence the public on a level comparable to the media must donate their money collectively to a political organization representing their interests.

Consequently, by banning large contributions to political parties, the media is left to dominate the channels of free speech. Whether one believes the First Amendment encompasses spending or not, it cannot be disputed that the effect of prohibiting spending in modern day society is the silencing of non-media voices in the public arena. As long as the FTC regulates the TV airwaves, doling out the major market shares to a few elite broadcasting companies which are granted “free” access into everyone’s home (how can you compete with government granted access to people’s homes that doesn’t cost the viewers a dime?), and as long as the nation’s major newspapers are owned by the same few families, the only way left to comparably compete in the vast public arena with the media’s voice is to advertise in their medium.

Furthermore, McCain’s campaign finance reform bill contains provisions that favor incumbents. How does helping incumbents reform campaignfinancing? Incumbents are part of the problem, winning reelection around 90% of the time. One provision of the bill raises the limit on the amount of money incumbents are allowed to spend on their campaigns to allow them to be able to match their challenger. Another provision prevents independent political groups from broadcasting advertisements mentioning an incumbent’s name within 60 days of a general election.

John McCain, while no liberal, is no friend to conservatives. Considering conservatives have already lost the Senate, conservatives should not be afraid that McCain will bolt the Republican Party, conservatives should HOPE that he will bolt the Republican Party.