A Leftist just this side of American Communism could win in Illinois, but the next Republican to win Statewide office there will have to be one of the State's premier moderate teddy bears.
There's nothing quite like spending eight hours (over two days) writing, editing and rewriting a column — this one, and my last just before an extended summer vacation, by the way — to see it rendered functionally irrelevant by the governor of New Jersey immolating himself on national television Thursday afternoon. But we'll do our best, as it's too late to turn back now …
Jack Ryan did what he thought was right in order to protect himself and his family, but in the process he left the Illinois Republican party in a pitiful, unorganized chaos as it attempted to find a replacement. From the current distance, one cannot help but wonder how much real damage would have been done to the State party had Ryan stayed on board, or even how much worse it could have been had it simply accepted the inevitability of Barack Obama, which existed long before his brilliant (if uncharacteristically moderate) keynote address at the Democratic convention. (In fact, opinion polls had Obama beating Ryan handily even before his scandal broke.) That way the party could have taken five years to produce a viable candidate in advance of the 2010 elections, going about things in a fashion less … well … Clintonian in nature.
Instead, the Illinois Republican party scrambled awkwardly, holding what amounted to a few open (but local) tryouts before reaching a third of a country away to Maryland, asking Alan Keyes to come out from political obscurity. Keyes took "a few days to make up his mind" before saying yes: "After careful deliberation, and on the strength of deep and contemplative prayer, I have decided to accept [the] nomination." If something tells you it wasn't that difficult a decision, you're probably right; no learned observer believed for a moment Keyes would refuse a call to battle by his party, for his party.
But from the second his name was dropped, a quiet debate began within national Republicanism: Alan Keyes is a fine conservative and a brilliant intellect but, um, didn't he scream at the top of his journalistic voice about Hillary Clinton's carpetbagging in New York State four years ago? Keyes' attempt to slide into the Illinois senate seat is dissimilar from Clinton's only in the fact he was handed the nomination, while Clinton had to win hers. That the difference is so slight should give pause; that is, it should give pause if all that complaining we (Republicans) did about Hillary was legitimate and not merely based on the fact she was Bill's liberal wife.
For his part, Keyes has made that distinction, but just that distinction, and not in a convincing enough way to make many Republicans forget. Carpetbagging, as Jonah Goldberg noted, "violates the small-r republican principle that representatives should be products of the communities they represent." It sort of goes back to the idea that all politics is local … and should be.
Now, Illinois law demands Keyes have a residence in-State by election day, which is fine, but establishing a residence in Chicago or Springfield (two random examples) wouldn't bring him any closer to understanding the unique concerns of the residents in Chicago or Springfield, let alone the State of Illinois; certainly not in a mere three months. Which brings to mind another question: How long must one live in Chicago or Springfield before he comes to that level of understanding? I once lived in Indianapolis (for seven disastrous months), transplanted from a town further north; had I arrived and immediately immersed myself in that city's government, could I have competently run for mayor at the end of those seven months? Not necessarily; learning of that city's political ins-and-outs would have only brought me closer to understanding city politics, not the drunk who lived below me.
Where Keyes will shine (and shine brilliantly) is in discussions of those issues that concern Americans in general: terrorism, unemployment, health care, abortion, et cetera. He will find enthusiastic crowds supporting his every thought on those issues at each campaign stop, such as the seven hundred that showed up for his announcement in Arlington Heights. Unfortunately, he'll also find, on election day, that all those people from all those stops combined will only make up about thirty-five percent of the State's electorate. A Leftist just this side of American Communism could win in Illinois, but the next Republican to win Statewide office there will have to be one of the State's premier moderate teddy bears. And Alan Keyes in no moderate teddy bear.
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