While most respondents to the Gallup Poll thought that Kerry expressed himself more clearly than Bush, these same respondents gave Bush better marks for agreeing with them more on the issues they care about, being more believable, being more likable, and demonstrating that he is tough enough to handle the job.

As a strong supporter of President George W. Bush, I can declare with all honesty that President Bush had an unremarkable debate against John Kerry.  It wasn’t a disaster.  The President did not fall flat on his face — unlike the Chicago Cubs.  But he helped himself very little.

I would liken President Bush’s performance to that of a great pitcher who simply does not have his stuff.  Bush did not surrender any home runs to Kerry but he walked him too many times and gave up enough singles to give Kerry the upper hand in the debate.  Kerry, to his credit, was poised and confident.  Even if his positions were downright silly (i.e. passing a “global test” for unilateral invasions, that invading Iraq was a mistake but that he was going to get other countries involved in this “mistake” and bilateral negotiations with North Korea), he stated them with conviction.  Kerry’s fastball was in the high 90s and his curveball froze the President.  Bush, meanwhile, looked like Pedro Martinez waiting for Grady Little to take him out of the game after the Yankees had once again crushed the hopes of Red Sox Nation.    He looked exhausted and downright cranky.

With that now said, one might ask if I believe that this affects the outcome of the election only a month away?    

Absolutely not.

John Kerry may be a master debater.  But this does not mean that Americans will want to elect him Commander in Chief.

Let’s go back to 1984 and the first Presidential debate between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale.  Reagan had a performance in that debate that one could argue was far worse than Bush’s effort.  Mondale looked poised and confident and stated his positions with conviction.  Reagan stumbled over his words and did not look certain of what he was speaking.

But Reagan knew he was flat and redoubled his efforts in his second debate.  He teased Mondale about his youth and inexperience and never looked back.  Even if that second debate did not happen it is hard to conceive of Mondale defeating Reagan that year.  The Cold War and the evil empire of the Soviet Union may seem almost quaint compared to the unpredictability of Islamist terrorists.  It should be remembered there were those who thought Reagan as reckless as Bush is perceived in some quarters today.  Some believed that Cowboy Reagan would blow up the world.  However, a majority of the American electorate could forgive the Gipper for one less than stellar debate performance and heeded his advice not to change horses in midstream.

I cannot help but think that the American electorate today will give President Bush the same consideration.  The stakes are undoubtedly higher today than they were twenty years ago.   President Bush might have his flaws and shortcomings but all of us do.  He does not pretend to be something that he is not to the American people.  President Bush did not plan to get involved in foreign affairs in the way President Clinton had, but cataclysmic events compelled him to do so.  It was those actions that earned the respect of those who not only supported him from the get go but those (like myself) who had paid him little regard previously.

It is also worth reading the Gallup Poll conducted following the debate.  While most respondents believed that Kerry fared better than Bush in the debate, these same respondents also believed that Bush would better handle the situation in Iraq (54%-43%) and also believed that Bush was more capable of handling the military responsibilities associated with being Commander in Chief (54%-44%).    

Moreover, while most respondents thought that Kerry expressed himself more clearly than Bush, these same respondents gave Bush better marks for agreeing with them more on the issues they care about (49%-46%), better marks for being more believable (50%-45%), better marks for being more likable (48%-41%) and better marks for demonstrating that he is tough enough to handle the job (54%-37%).  Not his finest hour but far from disaster.

Contrary to what many of his critics claim, President Bush is too smart to let a mediocre outing get in the way.  The stakes are too high.  Sure, we all have bad days.  There’s nothing wrong with getting knocked down so long as you dust yourself off and get back up.  Like any great pitcher, he will learn what he needs from this week’s performance and then move forward.

It is argued that the next two debates will not be as widely watched as the first.  One does wonder why the next Presidential Debate is scheduled for a Friday night?  But political junkies aside, there is a critical mass of people who have not decided who they are going to vote for and may still have not decided even after the first debate.    
Though some believe that the town hall meeting format does not suit Bush, it should be remembered that many of his campaign appearances are done in a town hall style where he takes questions (even those hostile in tone) from the crowd.  President Bush mixes well with people and should be more relaxed in the town hall debate in St. Louis.

As for the third debate in Tempe, Arizona, it is argued that Bush is weakest on domestic affairs.  But if Kerry can turn his greatest weakness into a strength there is no reason why Bush cannot do the same.  The third debate will have the same format that existed in the first debate so Bush can better adapt to those circumstances.

Most people won’t give the debates more thought than necessary.  They’ll watch them for a while, then check to see how the Red Sox are doing in the playoff game.  When most people enter the voting booth they are going to pull down the lever for the person they believe will act in their interests, that of their family and in the country.  John Kerry has reason to feel confident after the first debate.  But he will need more than one good debate if the electorate is going to be prepared to cast their ballots for him.   The Senator from Massachusetts and the Democratic Party ought not to be “kerryed away.”   Otherwise, they will be the ones scratching their heads on November 3rd.