The Associated Press has reported that Syria's President, Bashar Assad, is willing to discuss a serious peace offer with Israel, and wants to cooperate with the United States in stabilizing Iraq.
An absolutely extraordinary geopolitical event was broadcast on the Internet on Wednesday that appears to have either largely slipped under the American news media’s radar, or is being grossly underreported given its global implications.
The Associated Press reports that Martin Indyk, a former senior State Department official, had a three-hour long meeting with Syria’s President, Bashar Assad, last month. During this encounter, Assad apparently suggested that he is willing to discuss a serious peace offer with Israel, and wants to cooperate with the United States in stabilizing Iraq.
Now, let’s assume for a second that this is INDEED a sincere and genuine offer from Mr. Assad. What could the possible ramifications be for the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict, the Iraq War, and the War on Terror?
Well, as for the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict, the possibilities are almost unfathomable. Without going through an elaborate historical dissertation concerning this conundrum, the reality is that Syria has been a sworn enemy of the state of Israel since November 29, 1947 when the U.N. voted in favor of Partition. In fact, the Syrian army joined those of Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq to invade Israel on the day it declared its independence. To be sure, any REAL peace between Syria and Israel would be a major step in TRULY resolving this quagmire.
However, the long-term ramifications with regard to Iraq and the War on Terror are potentially even more exciting. First off, it is common knowledge that Syria is a safe haven for terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and HAMAS. Beyond this, many of the current Islamic extremists and insurgents in Iraq have come directly from Syria, and are continuing to do so. Furthermore, it is largely assumed by those who view such matters without concern for the upcoming U.S. election that any significant armaments held by Iraq prior to the invasion in March of 2003 were transported to Syria. Moreover, it is also widely speculated that the chemical weapons that were captured by Jordanian officials in April of this year during a thwarted al Qaeda bombing of the U.S. embassy in Amman came from Syria. As such, there is no question that a Syrian-American alliance at this time would dramatically change the geopolitical landscape in Iraq as well as throughout the entire Middle East.
The larger question here is one of motivation. Why is Syria suddenly making these peaceful overtures? Well, conceivably, there has been a form of Westernization occurring in Syria since Bashar, the son of the long-time Syrian President, Hafez, came to power in July of 2000 after the latter’s death. For instance, the following comes directly from Bashar’s inauguration speech:
In this regard it has become necessary to move in steady, though gradual, steps, towards performing economic changes through the modernization of laws, the erosion of bureaucratic obstacles standing in the way of internal and external investment flow, the recruitment of both private and public capital, and the activation of the private sector and granting it better opportunities to work. It is also necessary to bring the public sector to a competitive level in both domestic and external markets, the thing that leads to a balanced and comprehensive development in all provinces of the country and in rural as well as urban areas. This will also lead to a fair distribution NGP in a balanced fashion, to the increase of job opportunities and to the improvement of the livelihood of citizens in the light of the increase of their lively needs and the constant increase in the cost of living. We have also to put a wise economic policy that bridges gaps between sources and expenditure, between export and the rehabilitation of the private and public economic sectors to face the increasing dangers resulting from the challenges of globalization. In this way our economy may well assume a respectable place in regional and international economic blocs.
Amazing. Almost sounds like something JFK might have said during his inauguration. Unfortunately, Assad made those statements more than four years ago, and, although there was great enthusiasm in the Western world that this signaled a new beginning in this region, the reality is that we have yet to see anything remotely approaching the tenor of these comments. However, including this most recent AP report, there have been some very interesting developments of late that should make us all optimistic.
First, it appears that the Ba’ath Party is beginning to lose some appeal to Assad, and that he is trying to reduce its influence over his government. Just two weeks ago, Scott Wilson of the Washington Post reported that as a result of the virtual destruction of the Ba’ath Party in Iraq due to the American invasion, many top Ba’athists in Syria are advocating a similar downsizing of their party within their own homeland. Apparently, though a Ba’athist himself, Assad welcomes this due to the Ba’ath party’s opposition to his economic reforms.
The reality here is that Assad is intelligent enough to recognize that “It’s the Economy, Stupid!” For example, according to Wilson, every year, 300,000 Syrian youths are entering the workforce, and the current 3% annual economic growth rate isn’t strong enough to produce the jobs necessary to employ all of these folks. As a result, Assad is growing more and more weary of his own party’s obstructionist tendencies with regard to the economic changes that he believes are necessary. Given this, just yesterday, Assad implemented and oversaw a fairly radical restructuring of Prime Minister Naji Otari’s Cabinet. In his introductory speech to the newly inducted cabinet members, Assad stressed the need for them to focus their attention on unemployment, globalization, and improving the economic condition of the country.
So, what does this all mean? Well, at the present time, real excitement concerning all of these developments is quite premature, for the young Assad has not yet presented himself to American diplomats as being someone completely trustworthy. Furthermore, like many leaders in the region, his words often have absolutely no relevance to his deeds.
However, there are some significant economic forces that are coming to bear in this country that the highly educated Assad must be aware of. First off, Syria is NOT an oil rich nation like many of its Arab brethren. In fact, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggests that Syria’s oil reserves are so low that they could become a net importer of oil within the next decade. Moreover, the invasion of Iraq in March of 2003 resulted in a crude oil pipeline from that country into Syria being shut down, thereby cutting off a huge source of revenue. Meanwhile, as previously noted, the population keeps growing, and Assad needs to increase job creation or face an egregious and potentially devastating unemployment spiral.
Given all this, is it possible that pragmatism is overcoming extremism in this Arab nation? Might the young Assad be recognizing that the burgeoning democratizations of Afghanistan and Iraq are possibly leaving his nation in the dust, and that as a relatively minor oil producer that does not possess nuclear capacity, he has very little leverage with America at this point in time? Furthermore, is it conceivable that, much like Khadafy in Libya, Assad is realizing that he might be the next target of the Bush Doctrine, and that he is running out of time to negotiate a more favorable outcome for himself and his nation?
Certainly, only time will tell. However, just imagine how the landscape of this region and the War on Terror changes if the answer to all of these questions is “Yes.”
slep@danvillebc.com
Read more articles by Noel Sheppard
