The President Wins The Pennant! The President Wins the Pennant!
by Noel Sheppard | View comments |
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A look at the current polls indicates that not only has the President mysteriously recouped the ground that he lost during the first debate, but that he is conceivably in better shape than before the debate season started.
Sports fans around the country are quite familiar with Russ Hodges’ famous radio broadcast of Bobby Thomson hitting a three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth in the deciding third game of the playoff that sent the New York Giants into the 1951 World Series. In fact, in sports lore, this is referred to as, “The Shot Heard ‘Round the World!”
As odd as it may seem, Republicans might end up looking upon Wednesday’s third Presidential debate with just as much reverence and fondness as Giants fans view that historic moment at the Polo Grounds.
In reality, George Bush on Wednesday night was likely just as much the underdog as the Giants were in that series against their rivals from Brooklyn. After all, Kerry was clearly the more accomplished debater, and had thoroughly dominated in this podium-style, single moderator format just two weeks prior. Furthermore, given the fact that the topic of this debate was going to be domestic issues, which are typically stronger ones for Democrats, not only was the format seen as being a detriment to the President, but so was the anticipated focus of discussion. No wonder that opinion polls taken prior to Wednesday evening suggested that an overwhelming majority of the electorate expected Senator Kerry to hit a very long ball out of Sun Devil Stadium.
To be sure, the post-debate polls failed to specifically identify a victor. For example, the ABC News poll scored the debate Bush 41%, Kerry 42%. However, even though the overwhelming consensus outside of Democratic spin rooms was that Bush had a decisive victory in the second debate, ABC scored that one Bush 41%, Kerry 44%. As such, it quite appears that ABC News probably also thinks that the Dodgers won the pennant in 1951! Furthermore, if according to them, Bush lost by three points in the Fury in Missouri last week, a one point defeat on Wednesday using their methodologies quite suggests that the President did so well that he should be crowned George the Great in Arizona State!
Underscoring how wrong even the most knowledgeable of pundits can be in predicting public opinion, Dick Morris of Bill and Hillary Clinton fame was all over the airwaves on Wednesday evening suggesting that the President’s key advisor and negotiator, former Secretary of State James Baker, was quite foolish to agree to a format whereby domestic affairs were the sole focus of the final debate. In fact, Mr. Morris went so far as asserting that Vernon Jordan, Kerry’s debate negotiator, had quite outfoxed the wily Baker.
In his column on Thursday, Mr. Morris stated, “So despite Bush's able performance last night, Kerry had the edge because the subject matter was overwhelmingly Democratic. When candidates from each party speak fervently about improving health care, the Democrat almost always wins because of the partisan skew of the issue. When jobs are at issue, we trust Democrats; when the topic is Social Security or retirement, the legacy of FDR assures the Democrat of the advantage.”
Mr. Morris concluded, “Kerry clearly did well last night, while Bush did the best he could to blunt the inevitable skew of these issues. But the key question can only be judged from the post-debate polls: Did Kerry sell America on the idea that domestic policy is the most important issue?”
Well, the polls are in, and we now have an answer to this question; in the immortal words of ESPN’s Chris Berman, “That’s why they play the game!” For instance, John Zogby has been telling the nation for more than a month to ignore some of the more popular polls that have suggested that the President had a double-digit lead following the Republican National Convention. In fact, his polling has been indicating all year long that this race is and has been a virtual tie inasmuch as no candidate has been able to establish and hold a lead that was greater than the margin of error. However, on Sunday, Zogby reported, “While Bush — now at 48% — had another good night continuing his upward trend, Kerry appears stuck at 44%. The good news for the President is that he has improved his performance among the small group of undecideds. Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to be re-elected — up from 18% in our last poll.”
Now, to put this in perspective, this is the largest lead that the President has had in a Zogby poll since shortly after the RNC. Furthermore, as this matches the lead that the President enjoyed according to Zogby at that time, it appears that the Kerry bounce from the first debate has now completely evaporated. Moreover, this 48% support is the highest level that either candidate has garnered from the electorate in one of Zogby’s polls since BEFORE the Democratic National Convention. As such, this is HUGE!
However, as we certainly shouldn’t put all of our faith in the numbers being disseminated by one pollster, even one as well respected as Mr. Zogby, let’s take a look at the Rasmussen Reports poll also released this morning. With data collected that includes results from Thursday, Rasmussen is now showing Bush ahead by the count of 49% to 45.5%. This is up since just prior to Wednesday’s debate when Rasmussen scored the race Bush 47.6%, and Kerry 46.2%.
Furthermore, and potentially most telling is the fact that Rasmussen’s numbers also indicate that the President’s favorability with regard to who the electorate trusts to handle the economy and National Defense has returned to the advantage that he held over Mr. Kerry on these issues BEFORE the debates started. For instance, in terms of National Defense, this margin was Bush 52%, Kerry 43% in the last poll that Rasmussen did before the first debate (September 24th). Today, this margin is Bush 53%, Kerry 42%. As such, the President has actually expanded his lead on this issue during the debates. Moreover, with regard to whom the electorate trusts more to handle the economy, Rasmussen on September 24th assessed this number to be Bush 48%, Kerry 46%. Today, this margin is Bush 49%, Kerry 45%. Therefore, the President has also extended his lead on this key issue.
Given these numbers, it appears quite evident that not only has the President mysteriously recouped the ground that he lost during the first debate, but that he is conceivably in better shape than before the debate season started. Now, granted, this is certainly not being reflected in the polls that suggested that the President was ahead by double-digits in mid-September. However, this just goes to prove that organizations like Zogby and Rasmussen were probably doing a significantly better job of analyzing this race than some of the granddaddies in this industry.
That said, potentially more important than the raw data of these polling reports is their implication. For example, we know that Kerry had a bounce after the first debate. No question there. However, inquiring minds might want some justification for this more recent shift in opinion. Certainly, Bush did a fine enough job in St. Louis to quell concerns about his horrid performance in Miami. But, there appears to be something more at hand. First, as I mentioned in a previous column, I think that all of this talk about “Massachusetts Liberal” is beginning to stick. Clearly, in both St. Louis and Tempe, these two candidates represented quite a diametric view of the world that conceivably undecided voters are just beginning to understand. As many columnists including myself have been avowing for months, Mr. Kerry’s leftist views are in no way shared by the majority of the American people. As such, it quite appears that these last two debates have made this fact more apparent to folks who didn’t see it previously.
Additionally, I believe that Kerry and Edwards made two crucial errors in judgment last week that could end up costing them the election. First, Edwards’ declaration that if John Kerry was President, people like Christopher Reeves would be able to walk is just not something that the majority of the population is going to accept. As a result, Edwards has now depicted himself as somebody who will say anything to get elected. To be sure, this is not going to ingratiate him to those who feel that honesty and integrity are important. Furthermore, Kerry’s reference to Mary Cheney’s sexual orientation on Wednesday evening seems to have hit a real nerve with many average Americans. Certainly, such discussions are rather commonplace in the major cities in our nation. However, fortunately, there are still a lot of regions in our country where such things are just not discussed in public. And, frankly, to a lot of people, this is one of them. In fact, years from now, we might look upon this incident as being John Kerry’s “Kitty Dukakis” moment.
Whatever the reason, President Bush clearly has gotten past the toughest stretch of this campaign with flying colors. Or, in keeping with the theme, “Branca throws… There's a long drive! It's going to be, I believe…”
slep@danvillebc.com
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