After the release of the new Osama bin Laden videotape, the media's exclusive topic of discussion was how the tape would impact the election.
How many folks when first viewing the new videotape of bin Laden were waiting for Osama to get frustrated with the poor dubbing job done by his sound engineers and run off the stage in a hissy fit? Someone’s going to get sacked for this, right? Or, is Osama going to use acid reflux disease as his excuse for this lousy performance?
Now, I imagine many readers are thinking that this is not the time for such levity. Forgive me, but I don’t agree. This is exactly the right time. Think about it. For the last 7½ months since the al Qaeda attacks in Madrid, we Americans have been expecting some devastating hit to our nation just prior to November 2nd. Correct? Something that was designed to intimidate us into changing our votes. Well…is THIS IT? An Arabic version of Fahrenheit 9/11 without the Fabricating Fatso From Flint? Assuming that this WAS Osama’s best shot, I guess the only thing that is going to mar this election now is the continued propagandist and fallacious bombshells from that travesty of a tabloid from New York, and the pitter patter of lawyer feet.
Frivolity aside, having watched the talking heads on television and having read many news accounts since this videotape was first released, I am once again shocked by our media’s excruciating single-mindedness about events like this. For the most part, the exclusive topic of discussion has been how this tape will impact the election. I find this appalling to say the least.
There are significantly greater consequences to what this videotape means to our nation and the world we live in than how it might shape events on Tuesday. For instance, is it conceivable this indicates that bin Laden and his henchmen don’t actually have the muscle or might at this point to affect an attack on our nation of any real magnitude that might be life threatening? Has bin Laden been reduced to veiled threats because his network and funding have been so wiped out by our War on Terror?
As I don’t believe events in the Middle East typically operate independently of one another, I quite surmise that bin Laden’s motivation for creating this tape might end up having a lot more to do with something other than our election. Given this, let’s look at some recent headlines from that region to get a better sense of what else might have precipitated this curious video transmission:
• Karzai clinches Afghan poll win, rival concedes – Khaleej Times, 10/25/04
• Grand Ayatollah Sistani supports election process — Aljazeera, 10/29/04
• Ailing Arafat Faces Days of Medical Tests — Reuters, 10/29/04
To begin with, last Monday, Yunus Qanuni, Hamid Karzai’s opponent in the Afghan election, officially conceded. Extraordinarily, Afghanistan now has its first democratically appointed President stemming from an election that practically went off without a hitch. As a result, bin Laden’s former stomping ground is not only no longer a safe haven for him and his kind, but Afghanistan is now a part of a great community of democracies all around the world. Certainly, this represents a huge victory for the very thing that bin Laden is fighting against, and is a tremendous loss for him and his followers. In fact, Sunday’s New York Post indicates that in the twelve minutes of videotape that weren’t aired by Al-Jazeera, “bin Laden bemoans the recent democratic elections in Afghanistan and the lack of violence involved with it.”
Beyond this, it was reported on Friday: “Iraq’s main Shiite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has informed the interim Iraqi government of his ‘full support’ for elections scheduled for January. ‘The grand ayatollah’s message is that elections should be held as scheduled and that he will advise the faithful to take active part,’ Sistani’s spokesman Ahmad Safi told Arab News yesterday.” When combined with what occurred in Afghanistan last Monday, this means that, in just five days, two previously massive staging areas for terrorism in the Middle East have taken giant steps towards democracy. And, in this instance, it was largely facilitated by a high-ranking Muslim cleric. This can’t possibly be a source of great joy for bin Laden.
However, what might make Osama happy is the news of Arafat’s illness. It is highly likely that bin Laden perceives what the rest of the world does from the possible demise of the former PLO chief — a sudden and apparent vacuum in the leadership of the Palestinian people. Now, I’m not suggesting that bin Laden sees himself as Arafat’s replacement, but he certainly could fill a void that the people in this region might feel if Arafat does indeed die sometime soon. There might be many young, disenfranchised Palestinians looking for someone to follow once Arafat passes on, and bin Laden, who is always seeking new al Qaeda recruits, could see this population as a target rich environment. As such, putting himself in the limelight at almost the exact same moment that Arafat is getting onto a plane to possibly never step foot in “Palestine” again is likely not a coincidence.
Putting present events together with the past, it is conceivable that bin Laden and his generals never anticipated or planned for the kind of coordinated and aggressive response that they’ve witnessed since 9/11. After all, they had hit America and her interests several times before in the 90’s with virtually no retaliation. As a result, there really wasn’t any reason to expect that we would almost immediately go into Afghanistan and decimate the Taliban and most of al Qaeda whilst seizing millions of dollars from terrorist held bank accounts around the world. Furthermore, bin Laden likely never envisioned that Musharraf, who had quite accepted the Taliban in his own country prior to 9/11, would have taken anywhere near as active and militaristic a role against al Qaeda and Taliban members inside Pakistan. Moreover, once Musharraf did engage in such an allegiance against terror with America, it is safe to assume that bin Laden didn’t believe that he would survive this long without being assassinated.
Taking this further, bin Laden likely could not have predicted that America would invade Iraq as a result of 9/11, and, correspondingly, probably never dreamed that so many nations — regardless of what the Left in our country says — would have joined us in the battle. Once the invasion occurred, bin Laden must have been flabbergasted by the fact that the Arab world really did NOT join him in his call for a holy jihad against America and western democracies. Even his insurgents in Iraq appear to be failing, given recent transmissions from one of his key lieutenants, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, wherein he has indicated that he feels that they are running out of time.
Additionally, bin Laden couldn’t have foreseen Arab nations like Jordan participating in this War on Terror, and must have been shocked when he was informed back in April that Jordanian intelligence had thwarted a huge al Qaeda attack on the American embassy in Amman.
Finally, bin Laden and his associates must be overwhelmed by how strongly the international community — with the obvious exception of Spain — has responded to terrorists and their threats. For the most part, not one nation has caved in to the demands of these savages, even when one of their countrymen has been about to be executed. It seems very safe to assume that the terrorists expected that many countries would cower in fear with the first hostage taking and subsequent beheadings, and there would have been some significant capitulations by the coalition in Iraq. Obviously, much to bin Laden’s likely chagrin, this has not happened, and the international community has remained largely resolute.
To me, the sum total of all this information points to a terrorist leader that is clearly losing the war that he escalated on 9/11 — and he knows it. Even his presentation last Friday was much more conciliatory and less threatening than what we’ve seen from him in the past. No cadre surrounding him dressed in camouflage brandishing guns. No threatening hyperbolae. Instead, here was the terrorist mastermind standing behind a lectern with a script in his hand looking more like a politician or a priest than public enemy number one. Maybe this is indeed an admission by bin Laden that he realizes a Bush victory on Tuesday combined with successful elections in Iraq in January tolls the end of his own campaign for a holy jihad, and that he needs to quickly reengineer his public persona to have any significant role in the future landscape of this region.
To be sure, we might not know the real meaning behind this videotape for some months, possibly years. However, at this moment, Americans and our brethren around the world should be quite ecstatic that our most virulent enemy has, for the time being, apparently traded in his AK-47 and grenades for a camcorder and a speechwriter. For now, we should all rejoice in this being a wonderful treat, while praying that it’s not just a big trick.
slep@danvillebc.com
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