Playing With The Nuclear Option

 by Steven D. Laib  

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Iranian development of nuclear weapons is rather like a child bringing a gun to school to impress his peers. 

The recent announcement by the Iranian government that it had successfully enriched a quantity of uranium, and was now about to embark on the project full speed should surprise no one.  If the Bush White House was not expecting it, then we have to wonder who is giving advice to the President.  If the President was expecting it, then the potential for use of nuclear weapons against Iran should also be on the table.  Anyone familiar with the upper echelons of the military knows that they are always planning ahead, as Thomas Barnett's writings give testimony to.  They probably had this option under study several years ago.  

Despite this, Mr. Bush seems intent on taking the diplomatic route, which is almost certainly guaranteed to fail.  The Iranian leadership has one intention; making itself the power brokers in that part of the world, if not more.  They can do this because they have no qualms about using nuclear weapons while essentially everyone else wishes to avoid using them.  The Soviets blustered a lot, but essentially, they cared about the possibility that they might not survive a nuclear exchange.  The same may be said of the United States, although the underlying national philosophy was different.  Neither one wanted to lose everything.  That does not appear to be the case in Iran; the current leadership does not appear to understand the concept.  

On Tuesday of this past week White House spokesman Scott McClellan declared that "Defiant statements and actions only further isolate the regime from the rest of the world.  This is a regime that needs to be building confidence with the international community.  "Instead, they're moving in the wrong direction."

What McClellan may have missed is the fact that Iran has every intention of being defiant, regardless of the consequences.  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may well see this as his key to heaven and 71 virgins.  Unless he is brought to believe otherwise, or replaced with someone more rational the situation can only get worse. 

Examining the behavior of Ahmadinejad leads to either one of two conclusions.  In the first, he and his colleagues are intent on becoming a world class political power and do not believe that anyone will seriously try to stop them.  This possibility is reinforced by the Iranian leadership's apparent desire for respect at any cost.  Using nuclear weapons to achieve this is rather like a child bringing a gun to school to impress his peers.  Generally someone gets hurt or killed, and the child doesn't really gain respect.   In the second possibility Ahmadinejad and company are so totally obsessed with a set of fanatical religious beliefs that the concept of risk and the possibility of losing do not occur to them.  His past record of preparations for the arrival of the mythical mahdi, his recent declaration that he was surrounded by a divine aura while addressing the UN, and his continuing threats to Israel and the rest of the world, point to the this scenario as more likely.  All we need is a fanatic holding the trigger on a nuclear weapon.  Fanaticism generally leads to death and destruction.   China is one nation purportedly involved in helping Iran develop a nuclear capability but now appears concerned about the consequences.  According to Wang Guangya , China's ambassador to the United Nations, China wants the government in Tehran to pay attention to the international criticism of their nuclear program.  

China should be concerned.  It doesn't take a genius level intellect to figure out that if Iran builds a bomb, it will soon be threatening everyone with it.  The United States will be first, but you can be sure that the Russia, and China will be next.  The US may be "the great satan" to Tehran, but Russia has suppressed Islamist militants in its territory, and China is not friendly to organized religious activism.  Its primary reason for cozying up to Iran has been to gain access to cheap oil.  If China understands the threat, it may present an opportunity if Mr. Bush has the insight and the daring to see it.  

China is the United States' number one trading partner, and significant threats to that economic relationship will have dire effects on a Chinese economy that is losing it hold on the cheap labor market.  Chinese production facilities have discovered that competition for experienced and dependable labor raises the price of that labor.  Different factories are trying to hire away the best workers using higher wages.  There is also competition from other, less expensive, labor markets such as Vietnam.  China's position is potentially unstable as are all situations where the free market comes into play.  

Meanwhile, Russia can certainly do without more Islamist militants making trouble in central Asia.  Iran, as a source of financial support and weapons for militants could bring Chechnya back into the news quite quickly, if nothing is done to curb Iranian militarism. China, Russia and the US should understand that Islamist militarism threatens essentially the entire world, and could become a force sufficient to destroy all three nations if nothing is done about it.  This common interest should be enough for the three to work together for their mutual security as well as international security.  Now is the best time for them to act, before things get even more out of hand.  It can start diplomatically, but Tehran must be told that they have no choice in the matter, and that nuclear development must stop.  If Tehran refuses follow instructions military action must follow, and anyone who gets in the way must be given the same treatment.  

Chinese President Hu Jintao is about to visit the United States, which presents Beijing and Washington with the proverbial golden opportunity to create a better relationship, foster great power cooperation, and prevent conflict between themselves.  China wants oil.  Iran has oil.  China and American both want stability in central Asia.  The answer is simple.  

If it is not enough, President Hu should look further to the eventual threat that Islamism presents to his nation, as well as others.  He should be willing to take these steps for the preservation of Chinese culture, art, music, language, and so on.  To see it all destroyed in the name of a primitive, intolerant, monolithic system, which has no respect for anyone would be a travesty.  

If Iran wants respect it must understand that it cannot earn such respect by pointing a gun at someone.  Threats lead to defensiveness, and eventually to action, if the one threatened is intelligent.  The rest of the world presented no threat to Iran.  Arab/Islamist militarism made Iran into a threat.  Removing the threat will remove the need for action.  If Iran will not remove it, unfortunately, someone else will have to.

Politics: General, Foreign Affairs, National Defense

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