If the special election to fill Duke Cunningham's seat was a referendum on President Bush, Democrats made absolutely no headway at all.
The election of Brian Bilbray to the 50th Congressional District is a win, and make no mistake about it, the Republican victory is a big victory. The stars were all aligned against the Republicans, just as they were in the Ohio special congressional election when an Iraq War veteran ran as the Democrat candidate in a state in which the Republican Party was mired in scandal.
It is worth taking a few moments to analyze the actual results. Polls had been showing the Democrat, Francine Busby, and the Republican, Bilbray, in a dead heat with the last poll giving Bilbray a statistically insignificant two percent lead (within the margin of error.) Bilbray finished with an edge of four percent over Busby, and Busby got approximately the same percentage of the popular vote in her congressional election that John Kerry got in the same congressional district in the 2004 presidential race. In short, if this was a referendum on President Bush, Democrats made absolutely no headway at all.
More interestingly, Busby, who was running in a four-man race, came very close to getting an absolute majority of the popular vote. Had the Libertarian vote gone to Bilbray, then he would have had fifty-one percent of the vote. Had the anti-immigration supporters of William Griffith supported Bilbray, then the Republican would have received about fifty-five percent of the vote – a landslide in traditional political terms. Republicans need, then, to move more to individual liberty and tougher immigration if they wish to win elections. This jives perfectly with the sixty percent of Americans who consistently define themselves in poll after poll as conservative or very conservative.
It is also worth noting that this was in California, where Busby should have had two extra advantages in this election which were largely ignored by the Leftist media establishment. First, if Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives then a Californian, Nancy Pelosi, will become Speaker of the House. A vote for Busby was also a vote to put a fellow Californian in a position to help her state, and particularly because Busby would be serving in the same house of Congress as Pelosi.
Second, because there was a very close and very hotly contested race for the Democrat nomination for governor while there were no serious Republican primary races at all, more Democrats had a powerful incentive to show up to vote than Republicans. It is certain that these Democrats voted for Busby and not Bilbray.
In summary, despite replacing a disgraced Republican congressman, despite the conservative vote being divided three ways and all the Leftist vote behind Busby, despite all the unpopularity of President Bush, despite the artificially inflated Democrat turnout because of the gubernatorial primary, and despite the opportunity that Californians had to make one of their own Speaker by voting for Busby – despite all that – the Democrat Busby actually did worse than polls before the election indicated that she would.
This appears consistently in presidential polling. The two leading Republicans, Giuliani and McCain, consistently run far ahead of Hillary and Gore in presidential polls. How can this be, if the nation is turning Democrat? It cannot. President Bush is at the receiving end of all the negativity in America, whether caused by acts of God (like Katrina) or the evil of evil men (like the anti-democratic terrorists in Iraq.)
It is easy to be anti-Bush but difficult to be pro-Democrat, because Democrats stand for nothing except a venomous disdain for President Bush. Republicans, by contrast, are acting on their own in Congress to force Democrats to take unpopular stands. This means votes on school prayer, gay marriage, flag burning, death taxes and every other issue that through use of its procedural advantage in Congress, Republicans can force Democrats to make unpopular votes on unpopular issues.
There is another momentum building as well. Republicans are beginning to counter-punch and counter-punch hard on ethical issues. William Jefferson, Cynthia McKinney, Harry Reid and Patrick Kennedy promise to figure prominently in Republican National Committee campaign ads leading right up to November. One or two more corrupt Democrat congressmen or senators, and the American people will begin to get the message.
The momentum has shifted, and once the momentum shifts then the political support of those who want to back a winner shifts as well. So far all Democrats have been able to do is tear down a president. That is not enough to return them to power. Hate sold well in Germany seventy-five years ago. In America, it nearly always loses.
bwalker2004@cox.net
http://www.amazon.com/Sinisterism-Secular-Religion-Revised-Updated/dp/1432705466
Read more articles by Bruce Walker
There is one race in the country that may actually be a "bell weather" race, and that's the Senate race in Nebraska. Ben Nelson(D) is a staunch supporter of the House approach to immigration and has even supported Bush's judicial nominees. His Republican challenger, Pete Ricketts, favors the Senate's "It's Not Amnesty" amnesty bill.
The GOP primary for gov. in Neb. pitted former coach Tom Osborne against incumbent gov Dave Heineman. Osborne supported a bill which was to provide in-state tuition for illegals and their kids. Heineman's veto of the bill was cited by primary voters as the "tipping point" which led to the defeat of Osborne last month.
If a Dem wins in a Red state like Neb (66% Bush in 2004) by taking an enforcement-first approach to immigration, which will be the overriding issue in '06, then Dems in Red states will have an issue to actually win seats. Senate Republicans and Red state Democrats will ignore this result at their own peril.
Comment by The Plumber | June 9, 2006
As a conservative my one concern with a win or break even election for the GOP is that it would be saying to the GOP, " You have done well." As a conservative this may be my biggest fear. Rewarding these RINO's who occupy and represent the great conservative movement of the last 25 years would be a travesty. I know common logic says, RINO's are still better than a DEM, but I would point to the fact that our increased spending, loss of sovergnity as a nation, and the corruption of Congress demand a true change in who we vote for. We need to elect conservatives and change policies. A referendum on Mr. Bush needs to come from conservatives. What are we voting and fighting for if we only win elections, but never bring about true change in liberal and socialistic policies? Throw the bums out.
Comment by honker | June 9, 2006
Plumber, you are correct that the dems can win with an "enforcement first" platform. However, how many Nelsons are you going to find? Dems that support enforcement? They're a rare breed.
I think Busby lost because of that last second gaffe of hers on immigration. Whether she said what she was really thinking or just misspoke, I don't know, but I bet it cost her the margin of victory in the election.
Comment by Ron S. | June 9, 2006
Ron, You're right on both counts.
Comment by The Plumber | June 12, 2006