The Republican base will be forgiving of this Washington outsider who turned out to be a living icon of strength and purpose.
By now, most people around politics know that former New York Republican Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be seeking the nomination for president of the United States.
A recent column by Washington’s premiere political pundit, Robert Novak, only underlines the obvious: The question is not if Giuliani runs, but when he openly declares that he is running. Though Novak does not say when, I would speculate that Giuliani will announce by the end of this year.
A recent Gallup Poll asked the question of its participants: Who would they opt for as the Republican front runner in the 2008 presidential election? At the end of day, Gallup had Giuliani at 29%, while Senator John McCain, (R-AZ), came in at 24%.
What’s worth noting here is that the battle for the 2008 presidency will be fought by two well-known political figures who both share the non-too-complimentary appellation of “RINO,” or “Republican in name only.”
Though Giuliani is considered by conservative GOP insiders as too socially liberal to capture the support of the hard-core right of the party, this writer believes otherwise.
Giuliani made his mark in political circles by joining the office of U.S. Attorney, eventually rising to U. S. Executive Attorney. In 1975, Giuliani went on to Washington to eventually become the third-highest ranking member — Associate Attorney General — in Ronald Reagan’s Justice Department.
Giuliani was then appointed U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, where he gained national standing by indicting such notables as Bill and Hillary Clinton pal Marc Rich and Mafia crime boss Paul Castellano. Giuliani first became mayor of New York City in 1994 until the close of 2001, and is now the CEO of Giuliani Partners LLC.
The primary contest that will eventually come down to Senator John McCain and Giuliani will be fought on a number of fronts.
On the basis of name recognition, Giuliani bests John McCain by a considerable degree. Known as “America’s Mayor” after the catastrophic events of 9/11, Giuliani was Time magazine’s “Person of the Year” in 2001, and since has appeared all around the country, campaigning for GOP local and national candidates across the country.
McCain, though popular, is not the household name that Rudy Giuliani is, instead garnering an inordinate amount of attention through the mainstream media. While Giuliani is certainly noticed by the press, McCain is constantly feted by the press. Labeled in some circles as the “media candidate,” most notably by radio personality Rush Limbaugh, McCain has become recognized primarily for his willingness to buck his Republican Party, and specifically, President Bush.
It is this distinction that will probably get McCain plenty of air time and space with the liberal press. However, he will pay a price, and the price will be the abandonment of nearly the entire conservative base come the presidential primary.
By contrast, Giuliani, though politically moderate-to-left on some social issues, will be more palatable than McCain to the voters for the simple reason that he is viewed as a man of courage, conviction, and leadership. To many, McCain comes across as the mainstream media has dubbed him — a “maverick” or “courageous” Republican willing to dare the wrath of the “intractable hard-right of the party” in order to defy the George W. Bush-led GOP.
On the issues themselves, McCain and Giuliani will both have their problems.
But McCain’s positions and past votes within the Senate — of which Giuliani has none to worry over — will make it harder for him to claim solid platform-Republican credentials, much less conservative ones. McCain authored the Campaign Finance Reform bill, which to many in the GOP is a travesty against free speech. McCain has consistently voted against nearly all tax reform or tax cut programs proffered by the Bush administration.
McCain has also embraced the president’s ill-advised immigration reform plan, or as most call it, “amnesty-lite.” Amusingly, you now see McCain shifting his positions on some of these issues — like the immigration bill — as the campaign for 2008 draws ever near. But that is what a voting record is for; it never lets the advancement of time or events obscure those votes.
Giuliani, though better positioned for lack of a Washington paper trail, has problems of his own. While iron-jawed and conservative on crime, taxes, and national defense, Giuliani has work to do on gay rights, gun control, and a linchpin of the GOP base, abortion.
I believe that Giuliani will modify his position on all these issues. He will do what so many have done before him regarding these issues, and that is to stress the commonality that he shares with the base — like being against gay marriage — and maybe even reverse his position on a key issue, like partial-birth abortion.
In all, I think the Republican base will be more forgiving and receptive of a Washington outsider who turned out to be a living icon of strength and purpose after America suffered its most egregious loss of life on American soil since World War II.
McCain, by contrast, has worn out his welcome by his continuous attacks against Bush, and his willingness to relegate his GOP loyalty to a back seat for the sake of a Sunday morning spot on Meet The Press. McCain has done much to cultivate this image.
Giuliani will campaign on the events of 9/11 and showcase his well-documented leadership, the same thing that has sustained Bush through nearly all else in his presidency. McCain will claim that he has stood fast with Bush since 9/11, and so he has.
But at the end of the day, the GOP elephant never forgets. The party faithful will find it difficult to elect the maverick senator from Arizona, instead opting for the stalwart and iron-willed mayor from New York, who helped show a nation the way back into the light of a new day when the chaotic and nightmarish darkness of 9/11 threatened to bring America to its knees.
I do not think he will get the nomination because he will not be able to make it through the South. However, if he does because the conservatives split their vote, then that will be the best thing that has ever happened to the Constitution Party. There is a small but hard-core minority who will never vote for a pro-choice nominee.
I believe that it is still too early to assume who will recieve the Republican Party nomination, especially when that assumption is based on polls. Of course now Giuliani and McCain are the two “front runners”, because the Republicans have no obvious candidate for 2008. However, I believe come 2008, once all Republicans get exposure to more candidates, the polls could shift.
Look at the 2004 Democratic Primary for example; everyone believed that Howard Dean was the front runner for the primary, but suddenly John Kerry sprung out of Left Field (no pun intended) to take the nomination.
Rudy Giuliani is definitely one option. But Mitt Romney, and several other GOP Senators, will be given their time in the media light too.
Mitt seems like a good choice however no Mormon will ever be elected president.
Let me tell you how much I — a right-leaning moderate republican that votes — detest the idea of a President McCain. If Hillary Clinton gets the democratic nomination, I will vote for her. Mr. Giuliani is an “interesting” option, however, there will be many more to choose from. Who can predict whether a President Giuliani would be able to manipulate a purposefully obstructionist Congress to even think about the “right” things, let alone do the right thing for legal American citizens? This Congress has been a disgrace. I haven’t seen nor heard a “hopeful” that engenders the trust or possesses the personal principles that I feel will be necessary to deal with the long and growing list of threats to our way of American life. Just more of the same and it’s very distressful.
mr. fiore, i respectfully disagree. regardless of mr. giuliani’s ‘moderation’ of his positions on gay rights, abortion or gun control…when his historical position becomes known, he will lose the any chance he has at winning the republican nomination. i also disagree with the statement by commentor mr. gigax. we elected a catholic in 1960 because of his position on issues and his reputation. i believe, and will work toward electing mitt romney for the same reasons.
I hope neither of them will get the nomination.
I think it is remarkable that while alledged conservatives have won Congress and the Presidency, politicians are increasingly leaning to the left. The democratic party has left the loony bin and are now head-banging inside the rubber room in the asylum, while Republicans abandon conservative principles in favor of so-called “moderate” positions. I wonder aloud if while we were winning most battles, we were really losing the war. Guliani is the classic Rockefeller, Nixonian republican. Tom Tancredo might be the next Ronald Reagan, but he really doesn’t have enough gravitas to win. Gingrich has original ideas and will, but there’s something Clinton’s FBI was able to blackmail him into resigning that troubles me. We need a hero. I hate that McCain thinks religion is divisive and speaks like he’s wooing The Old, Drunken Whore, oops, I mean The Old Grey Lady (NYT). We need a vision. We need an eloquent sililoqouy on the on our country, our families, our Maker. Where are the Champions, the Warriors, and the Visionaries that make a people great?
I agree with Joseph….the conservative movement came out strong in the Eighties with Ronald Reagan leading it as President…then, in 1994, Newt Gingrich came out as the inspirational, truly conservative leader to take back Congress. George W. Bush was expected to be one of those leaders when he came to office in 2000, but has abandoned many key conservative positions and has disappointed many conservatives.
The next Republican candidate for President in 2008 needs to be, as Joseph said, a visionary, an intellectual, someone inspirational, and truly conservative, to keep conservative influence growing. I can tell you that neither McCain or Giuliani will be that person. I personally am rooting for Newt Gingrich, although I may like someone else come Primary time.
Joseph, Andrew,
Here is the problem. The bar for what constitutes “real” conservatism has been set very low. Are Reagan and Gingrich really by a historical perspective that conservative? What Government programs did either want to abolish? Social Security? Medicare? WIC? Reagan came in saying he wanted to abolish the DoE, but that has been removed from the GOP platform. Now Republicans want to lavish money on education just like the Dems. We did not lose the war, because to lose a war there has to be a fight. The “conservatives” never fought. Every program not specifically authorized by the Constitution should be abolished. Period.
We do not need Reagan and Gingrich style “conservatism.” We need Henry, Jefferson, and Calhoun style conservatism.
The only Republican who fits the bill that I know of is Ron Paul.
Sir, I agree very much with your characterization of the political climate. However, I’m remembering the Chinese adage of having only one enemy at a time. I think the first hill we set our sights on is education. Stopping the indoctrination of children by the cult known as the NEA. Stopping the fraud and theft in so-called Higher Education. Fighting for vouchers, charter schools, and homeschoolers. The liberals act like Al-Queda. Only with their own Midrasas could they convince future generations to support their treachery and deceit. Benjamin Franklin said if we don’t hang together we certainly will all hang seperately. We need you. The stakes are too great. God Bless you.
Jefferson and Calhoun style conservativism is dead it died with the shift of democratic party that began with FDR. You are mixing up old conservativism with new conservatism they are totally different. We definately need a Reagan or Gingrich style conservative. The problem is that they are hard to find these days. McCain has his Senate record working against him and we all saw what happened to Kerry regardless of the fact that he was an idiot its to hard to run these days on a Senate record with todays media. Executives such as governors or mayors make the best candidates. Guiliani is a Catholic which will definately get in the way especially considering he is Catholic and pro-choice…..? I agree with the previous poster in that Romney a Mormon will not win. The Republicans have to have a candidate that wins the South. I also think that Republicans need to focus on social issues in order to recieve the most support and social liberals such as Guiliani and McCain are not the way to do it.
Jrad, you are absolutely right that I’m am discussing the old or “real” conservatism and that old conservatism and new “conservatism” are “totally different.” You are wrong that I am mixing things up. My point is that the old conservatism is the real thing, silly notions like actually following the Constitution and all, and that the new “conservatism” is no conservatism at all. It is just slightly less social democracy than the other guys.
I have no problem being pragmatic and with ideas such as incrementalism. But the incrementalism has to be going in the correct direction. For example, shrinking the DoE by a fixed 10% a year for the next 10 years until it is gone. It is not a helpful pragmatism or incrementalism to think you have accomplished something when you grow an unconstitutional program at a slightly slower rate than the Dems.
Rudy Guiliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney are the three favorites for the Republican nomination with George Allen, who I support, as the longshot. Guiliani can win by placing well in Iowa, winning New Hampshire, surviving South Carolina, and then winning states like Michigan, California, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
I don’t watch TV much and did not watch much of it even after 9-11. I never understood the Rudy as America’s mayor phenomenom. Did he man a bulldozer 24-7 for a month straight? Did he jackhammer the rubble for weeks at a time? It seems to me that Guiliani was pretty good at getting his face in front of a microphone at the right time. I don’t think much of Guiliani and don’t like his politics or person. However, most Americans do, most Republicans do, and most conservatives do.
Guiliani is a democrat in a republican skin. Period. Think conservative. Think Brownbeck.