Earlier this week, Hungarian-born Nicolas Sarkozy secured the nomination of the UMP, France’s largest conservative political party, as its presidential candidate.

I know it seems a preposterous proposition but humor me for a moment.  Later this year, Tony Blair leaves 10 Downing Street after a decade in office.  His likely successor, Gordon Brown, is cool to the strong Anglo-American alliance developed by Blair and President Bush, at least where it concerns British involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Even if Brown should lose the next general election to Conservative Party leader David Cameron, there are even stronger indications Cameron would make space between 10 Downing Street and the White House.  During his speech at the Conservative Party Conference last October he declared his government would be “steadfast not slavish” towards the United States concerning foreign policy.

While it remains to be seen what either Brown or Cameron would do concerning British involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is clear that neither will be as reliable an ally to the United States as Blair.    One could make the argument that America has strong allies in John Howard of Australia and Stephen Harper in Canada.  However, a Great Britain less involved in the War on Terror would be a devastating step backwards.  That is unless the void is filled by another Western democracy of European residence.   

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is certainly more sympathetic to the aims of the United States than her predecessor Gerhard Schroeder.  However, Merkel is constrained by the fact that she is in a coalition government with Social Democrats who strongly oppose the War in Iraq, although Germany does maintain approximately 3,000 troops in Afghanistan.  Germany has, however, ignored NATO’s call to send more troops to combat the resurgence of the Taliban.

It would appear that the solution might be found across the English Channel.  Yes, the land of “cheese eating surrender monkeys” could fill the void left by Britain.  That is, of course, assuming the French electorate refrains from behaving like cheese eating surrender monkeys and elects Nicolas Sarkozy as its new President this spring.  His election could break the Vichy cycle of appeasement and capitulation under Chirac and Mitterrand before him.

Earlier this week, the Hungarian-born Sarkozy secured the nomination of the UMP (Union pour on Mouvement Populaire), France’s largest conservative political party as its presidential candidate.    Sarkozy, who turns 52 later this month, currently serves as France’s Minister of the Interior.  He is probably best known for his handling of the 2005 riots by Muslim youths in French banlieues.  While the French Left demanded its bloated welfare state spend more money on housing, education and job creation, Sarkozy called for a zero tolerance approach which eventually ended the riots.  Needless to say, Sarkozy became a reviled figure to both Muslims and to the Left when he referred to the rioters as “hoodlums” and “scum,” but he was a hero to those who craved law and order.  Ironically, in 2003, Sarkozy was instrumental in establishing the French Council on Muslim Worship, an umbrella organization of Muslim mosques and community organizations that would work directly with the French government not unlike similar national Catholic and Protestant organizations.  Sadly, but not surprisingly, the Council has become a hotbed of Islamic radicalism.

Still, Sarkozy is a maverick.  He openly admires the United States.  He even spent the fifth anniversary of the September 11th attacks in the United States.  While no Milton Friedman, he supports free markets.   He believes France’s taxation rate is too high and wants a maximum taxation rate of 50%.  In a country with an unemployment rate over 10%, Sarkozy believes unemployed persons who refuse job offers should either have their benefits reduced or eliminated altogether.  He also strongly favors immigration reform.   Needless to say, Sarkozy is also hated by all the right people.  In addition to being despised by the Left and by Muslims he is also despised by President Chirac and Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, the former French Foreign Minister who would not allow the UN Security Council to authorize military action against Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Sarkozy was originally a protégé of Chirac but fell out with him when he backed former Prime Minister Edouard Balladur over Chirac during the 1995 French Presidential elections.  Balladur, who at one point was favored to win the election, ended up being eliminated in the first round of voting, finishing fourth.    Chirac punished Sarkozy and other Balladur supporters by politically ostracizing them.  It was not until after Chirac was re-elected in 2002 that Sarkozy was appointed to the Cabinet, first as Minister of the Interior and later as Minister of Finance.  Sarkozy returned to the Interior Ministry in 2005.  As for de Villepin, he allegedly leaked information that Sarkozy (amongst other French public figures) held a secret bank account at Clearstream Banking, ostensibly for kickbacks.  As it turns out, Sarkozy holds no such account and the leak was widely seen as an attempt to put the kibosh on Sarkozy’s presidential ambitions.  There has been a significant backlash against de Villepin because of this and his unpopular policy initiatives carried out as Prime Minister that have effectively ended his own ambitions for the French Presidency.

The first round of the presidential elections will take place on April 22nd.  If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote there will be a runoff election on May 6th between the top two vote getters in the first round.  It is most likely that the top two vote getters will be Sarkozy and Socialist Party leader Ségolène Royal.  Compared to Tony Blair for her admiration of “third way” politics, should Royal prevail she would be the first woman to be elected President of France.  It would also represent the first time the two main candidates for the French Presidency have been born outside France.  Royal was born in Senegal in 1953.  Although Royal has experience as a Cabinet Minister under Prime Ministers Pierre Bérégovoy and later Lionel Jospin, she has already made several gaffes since securing the Socialist Party nomination in November.  In December, Royal visited Lebanon and ended up meeting with Ali Amar, a Hezbollah politician who described U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East as “unlimited dementia.”  Royal praised Amar for his frankness concerning the United States.  Amar also likened Israel’s occupation to the Nazi occupation of France during the Second World War.  While she objected to Israel being described as the “Zionist entity” she did not challenge Amar’s likening Israel to Nazi Germany.  France’s Ambassador to the Lebanon claimed that Royal did not hear the full account of Amar’s remarks from the translator provided by the Lebanese government.  Though why praise any of Amar’s remarks at all?  One could argue there might have been a miscommunication and an honest mistake could have been made.  However, earlier this month, Royal visited the People’s Republic of China, ostensibly to challenge it on its human rights practices.  Although she called for the release of three Chinese journalists being held she also praised China’s justice system, calling it “more rapid” and “efficient” than French courts.  As a result of these gaffes, Sarkozy has pulled ahead of Royal in public opinion polls much to the chagrin of Socialist Party apparatchiks.  She is, however, incredibly photogenic.  Do not underestimate the persuasive powers of a beautiful woman.

There also exists the possibility that Chirac would run for a third term as an independent candidate.  If Royal proves to be a weak candidate, it might be Sarkozy and Chirac squaring off in May.  Still, no French President in the Fifth Republic has served more than two terms in office.  While one must not underestimate Chirac’s political savvy it might also be a case of not knowing when to quit.  Chirac has been in French politics for over forty years.  Of course, the notoriously anti-Semitic National Front leader Jean Marie Le Pen has been in the forefront of French politics for over half a century.  Now nearly 80 years old, Le Pen will run yet again for the French Presidency.  In 2002, he finished second in the first round of the presidential elections and faced Chirac in the second round where he was trounced.  It is not expected that Le Pen will do as well this time around but he might siphon off enough nationalist votes from Sarkozy to put Royal over the top (assuming Chirac opts not to run).

There is no guarantee that Nicolas Sarkozy will prevail this spring.  No doubt there will be efforts by Royal, Chirac and others to characterize him as a puppet of the Bush Administration or wrap him up in the Stars and Stripes.  Of course, such a tactic might end up backfiring.  When Sarkozy spoke in Washington last September he said the French people do not hate Americans and remarked, “Every French parent dreams of sending their child to an American university.”  Even if Sarkozy does become France’s next President he might very well stick to its statist economic policies and be eager not to be seen as too close to the United States.  But then again he could be the maverick he says he is.  Currently, France has about 4,500 troops in Afghanistan.  If Sarkozy were to heed NATO’s pleas and boost troop levels in Afghanistan it would be most welcome.  If he were to send some troops to Iraq, America, I dare say, could again call France its friend.  It might also emerge as a dependable friend of the United States on the UN Security Council, especially on Iran and Lebanon.  Given France’s history in Lebanon, Sarkozy could also be of help in providing support to its fragile democracy that is rapidly being undermined by Syria through Hezbollah.  Frankly, if Sarkozy managed to do any one of these things successfully it might be sufficient for Bill O’Reilly to drop his four year boycott of France.  If not, it might at least be worth cracking open a bottle of Evian or Volvic and toasting, “Vive la France!”