Making predictions about baseball or anything else is a hit or miss proposition.

A year ago, I wrote an article and audaciously predicted that the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would win the 2006 World Series. The Devil Rays would finish the 2006 season with a 60-102 won-loss record; the worst record in Major League Baseball last season.

At the time that I wrote the article it was initially believed to be an April Fools’ Day joke. But when it became clear that I was being serious, questions were raised about my mental health and general well being. 

Given how spectacularly wrong I was in placing my eggs in the D’Rays rickety basket one would think that I would refrain from making such predictions in the future.  

Nonsense.

Making predictions about baseball or anything else is a hit or miss proposition. Sure there are a lot more misses than hits. But I’ve had a few hits. Yet even when I am right I don’t always go 4 for 4. When the Chicago White Sox acquired outfielder Scott Podsednik from the Milwaukee Brewers prior to the 2005 season, I told anyone who would listen that the Chisox were going to the World Series. Now remember I said I predicted the Chisox would reach the World Series. I didn’t think they would win it. I thought the Chisox would be beaten by the St. Louis Cardinals. Of course, the Chisox won the 2005 World Series, sweeping the Houston Astros in four games. It should be noted that the Astros narrowly defeated the Cardinals in that year’s National League Championship Series. So I went 2 for 3 with a walk. 

This season I am setting my eyes on the Texas Rangers because of the Buck Showalter effect. So who is Buck Showalter and what is his effect? After the 2006 season, Showalter was fired as manager of the Rangers and replaced by Ron Washington, who previously was the third base coach for the Oakland Athletics. A number of people have made this observation about Showalter. Whenever Showalter has left a managerial post the team goes on to win the World Series the following season.

In 1995, Showalter guided the New York Yankees to the American League Wild Card. They would lose to the Seattle Mariners, however, in the American League Division Series. Showalter then left the Yankees to accept the managerial post with the Arizona Diamondbacks, although they would not come into the National League until 1998. Showalter was replaced by Joe Torre who in 1996 led the Yankees to their first World Series championship since 1978. Torre, of course, would be at the helm for three more World Series championships from 1998 through 2000. 

During this same period Showalter managed the Diamondbacks. He took them to the post-season in 1999, where they would lose to the New York Mets in the National League Division Series courtesy of a walk-off homerun by journeyman catcher Todd Pratt off Matt Mantei. After failing to reach the postseason in 2000, Showalter was fired by the Diamondbacks and replaced by former major league catcher and broadcaster Bob Brenly. In 2001, the Diamondbacks would defeat the Yankees in seven exhilarating games, capped off by Luis Gonzalez’s single off Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the ninth, to win their franchise’s first Fall Classic.

Showalter managed the Rangers from 2003 through 2006 and failed to reach the postseason. There are many who wonder if fortune will smile on Washington as it did with Torre and Brenly. I believe it will and I am predicting that the Texas Rangers will win the 2007 World Series, prevailing over the Houston Astros in the first all-Texas Fall Classic. Rest assured I believe the Rangers will get their moment in the sun for reasons other than Showalter’s departure. 

But let me tell you how I arrived at this conclusion. The following are my predictions of the standings for the East, Central and Western Divisions of the American League and National League. Included are my predictions for each league’s Rookie of the Year, Cy Young Award and Most Valuable Player winners.  

AMERICAN LEAGUE

East 

New York Yankees  97-65 _
Baltimore Orioles  88-74   9
Toronto Blue Jays  85-77  12
Boston Red Sox  72-90 25
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 68-94 29

New York Yankees

While they are not the team that won four World Series in five seasons they still have a potent lineup with the likes of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, Jorge Posada and Bobby Abreu. Any lineup where Robinson Cano hits ninth is an offense with which to be reckoned. A healthy Hideki Matsui will be music to the ears of the Bronx faithful. The starting rotation appears to be long in the tooth with the likes of Mike Mussina and the returning Andy Pettitte. Carl Pavano has been battling injuries since donning a Yankee uniform and 19-game winner Chien Ming-Wang will begin the season on the disabled list. Japanese import Kei Igawa could be very valuable in filling the breach. But the Bronx Bombers still have Mariano Rivera closing out their games. Getting to Rivera might be a challenge as Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Myers and Scott Proctor struggled last season. The addition of Luis Vizcaino and Chris Britton in the Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright trades, respectively, should address this challenge. Again, the Yankees are not as good as in years past but they are good enough to win the AL East and earn Joe Torre another postseason trip.

Baltimore Orioles

It’s hard to believe that the O’s have not had a winning season since 1997. But they did make a significant number of off-season moves. The O’s added veterans Jaret Wright and Steve Trachsel to the starting rotation. They join a staff consisting of Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen. If Bedard stays injury free he could contend for the Cy Young Award. If Cabrera can learn to control his great stuff he could be right up there with Bedard. Chris Ray will have a stronger supporting cast in the bullpen with the addition of Chad Bradford, Danys Baez, Jamie Walker and Scott Williamson.  

Miguel Tejada is good for driving in 100 runs. But look for others to step up this season. Watch for Nick Markakis to have an MVP-type season in only his second full year in the majors. I also believe Brian Roberts will be healthy and return to the form of the first half of the 2005 season, and Melvin Mora should put in another solid season at third. Ramon Hernandez is an All-Star caliber catcher. The addition of Jay Payton from Oakland and Aubrey Huff from the Astros should be of help. Look for Corey Patterson and Kevin Millar to make contributions as part-time players.

I don’t believe the O’s are quite ready for the post-season but I do believe they are ready to start winning again. If they do, Orioles skipper Sam Perlozzo will be a good candidate for AL Manager of the Year.

Toronto Blue Jays

This season might be defined by the classic battle of the irresistible force against the immovable object. The problem is that both forces are on the same team. The irresistible force is outfielder Vernon Wells, who re-signed with the Jays this past off-season for $126 million over seven years. The immovable object is Jays manager John Gibbons. The Jays skipper was given a one-year extension this off-season.

The Jays have enormous talent ranging from Wells, power-hitting third baseman Troy Glaus, former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay, closer B.J. Ryan and talented but injury-prone starting pitcher A.J. Burnett. The only thing standing between the Jays and a playoff spot is their field boss. Gibbons had some clashes with Shea Hillenbrand and Ted Lilly, both of whom are no longer with the club. Gibbons also has not always seen eye to eye with Wells either. How will Gibbons handle the notoriously difficult Frank Thomas, who feuded with Ozzie Guillen in Chicago?

Even under the most optimal circumstances the Jays have other problems. Will Burnett be healthy? The same can be asked of former Braves pitcher John Thomson. What is with GM J.P. Ricciardi signing injured pitchers? Gustavo Chacin was also hurt much of last season. And how dependable will Tomo Ohka be in the starting rotation? Can Royce Clayton really be your everyday shortstop at the age of 37? And can Jason Frasor and Scott Downs be adequate set-up men for B.J. Ryan? Casey Janssen will be joining them in the bullpen but I believe he is better suited in the starting rotation. 

I believe that Gibbons has not had his last confrontation with a player. Until that time I believe the Jays will struggle. Because of this I predict Gibbons will be fired sometime during the 2007 campaign. It will not matter who replaces Gibbons because the team will start winning.  It will just be too late to have an impact in the American League East.

Boston Red Sox

Believe it or not, I do not have a good feeling about my hometown team. There was tremendous excitement this off-season with the signing of Japanese pitching sensation and World Baseball Classic MVP Daisuke Matsuzaka. But Japanese players are a hit or miss proposition. He could be Hideki Matsui or he could be Hideki Irabu. Even of Matsuzaka (or Dice-K as he is known here) lives up to the hype the Red Sox are probably putting too many eggs in one basket. Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield are not getting any younger. The team will come to be more dependent on Josh Beckett. Given his history with blister problems can Beckett throw more than 200 innings for a second consecutive season? Julian Tavarez did an outstanding job in the final month of the season as a starter and richly deserves a chance in the rotation. But it remains to be seen if he can be a viable starting pitcher over an entire season. 

I did breathe a sigh of relief when it was announced that Jonathan Papelbon would remain as the team’s closer. But can his shoulder hold up? Is Mike Timlin on his last legs? Brendan Donnelly is a nice addition to the bullpen. The Sox also signed another Japanese pitcher, Hideki Okajima, as a left-handed relief specialist. Of course, if Okajima falters then veteran J.C. Romero can step into the breach. Any contribution made by cancer survivor Jon Lester will boost morale tremendously.

The one-two punch of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz will provide their usual offense. But the lynchpin of this team is Jason Varitek. The team collapsed after his injury at the end of July, losing 21 of 30 games in August, including five in a row to the hated Yankees at Fenway Park. Varitek isn’t getting any younger and catchers of his caliber do not fall off trees. Mike Lowell will continue to provide Gold Glove quality defense and Julio Lugo will pick up where Alex Gonzalez left off. Kevin Youkilis did a nice job at first last season but how will Dustin Pedroia fit into the mix at second?

I have deep reservations about the five year, $70 million contract signed by J.D. Drew. He is injury-prone and has never had back-to-back good seasons. It should be noted that Drew wanted out of his contract with the Dodgers because he couldn’t handle Los Angeles. If Drew can’t handle laid-back L.A., what makes him think he’ll handle the in-your-face Fenway fans? If Drew falters, Willy Mo Pena can step into the breach. That is assuming he is not hurt.

The Sox have some bright spots but I believe they will be overcome by a dark cloud. They’ll get off to a good start but by mid-July the shadows will have formed and the World Series parade on Boylston Street will seem like a distant memory. Manager Terry Francona might wish he was back in Philadelphia.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Of course, I predicted a World Championship from this team last year. Believe it or not, I was not smoking anything. I am not predicting a last place finish this year to be on the safe side. Until the Red Sox announced they were placing Papelbon back into the bullpen I was prepared to pick the Bosox to finish in the cellar of the AL East.

This team just doesn’t have the horses. Scott Kazmir is amongst the premier starters in the American League. After him, good luck in finding anyone who can pitch decently for five innings. The bullpen is not much better. 

There are some exciting players on this team. Carl Crawford is arguably the fastest man in baseball. Top prospects B.J. Upton, Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young are similarly swift. It should be a fun outfield. Ty Wigginton is a solid, if unspectacular player who makes the best of a bad situation. Both Jorge Cantu and Jonny Gomes (whom I picked to win the American League MVP last season) struggled badly in 2006. Will Rocco Baldelli ever be healthy? Japanese import Akinori Iwamura will play third. But if Iwamura falters, Evan Longoria is waiting in the wings. Shortstop is a toss-up between Ben Zobrist and former Cincinnati Red Brendan Harris. 

I don’t think the D’Rays will lose 102 games this season but they will still lose a lot of games. I wonder if Joe Maddon has found managing in Tampa Bay to be a maddening experience.

Central

Cleveland Indians 95 67 __
Minnesota Twins 93 69  2
Chicago White Sox 90 72  5
Detroit Tigers  76 86 19
Kansas City Royals 64 98 31

Cleveland Indians

The Indians were the biggest disappointment in Major League Baseball in 2006. After coming close to a playoff berth in 2004 and even closer in 2005, the Tribe severely regressed, finishing with a 78-84 record. But often when a team comes close to winning they need to have a losing season so they become that much hungrier to win. I think of Jim Leyland’s Pittsburgh Pirates. After coming in second place in the NL East in 1988, they fell flat on their face in 1989. The Bucs learned from that season and then won three consecutive NL East titles. I believe the Tribe is in the same position now. Besides, manager Eric Wedge is on the hot seat. If he should falter, Buck Showalter is waiting in the wings (and, of course, if that doesn’t work they can just fire Showalter and then win the World Series the following season). But talk about creating a wedge.

Like the Baltimore Orioles, the Indians made improvements to their bullpen, adding veterans Roberto Hernandez, Aaron Fultz and Joe Borowski. They also added gritty veterans who aren’t afraid to get their uniforms dirty, like Dave Dellucci and former Red Sox outfielder Trot Nixon. Ex-San Diego Padre Josh Barfield will fill in nicely at second base. But most importantly, expect big rebound seasons from Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, Casey Blake and Jhonny Peralta. A healthy Travis Hafner is a serious MVP candidate whether or not he is a DH. Former Red Sox farmhand Andy Marte should excel at third base this season. The starting rotation of C.C. Sabathia, Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook, Jason Davis and Cliff Lee has the right balance of veterans and youngsters. The Tribe is poised for their first AL Central Division title since 2001.

Minnesota Twins

The defending AL Central champions stood pat for the most part this off-season. Of course, when you have the reigning American League MVP Justin Morneau, the reigning American Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana as well as Joe Mauer, the first catcher to win a batting title since 1938, you can afford to do so. Joe Nathan might very well be the most underrated closer in the AL. And I didn’t mention the Twins exercised their option on centerfielder par excellence Torii Hunter.

The Twins have a solid cast of supporting players such as veteran second baseman Luis Castillo, promising young shortstop Jason Bartlett and the dependable Nick Punto at third base. Accompanying Hunter in the outfield is Michael Cuddyer in right and the platoon of Rondell White and Jason Tyner in left. Ron Gardenhire provides low key stewardship as their skipper.

The biggest question mark for the Twins is their starting rotation. Specifically, what do the Twins have to offer after Santana? For much of last season the Twins had the one-two punch of Santana and Francisco Liriano. However, an injured left elbow forced Liriano to have Tommy John surgery and he will miss the entire 2007 season. It is also worth noting that Twins mainstay Brad Radke retired at the end of last season. Joining Santana in the rotation will be holdovers Carlos Silva and Boof Bonser. The Twins will also offer veteran right-hander Ramon Ortiz. Free agent Sidney Ponson will also likely get an opportunity in the starting rotation. However, Ponson pitched for both the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Yankees quite ineffectively last season. There’s little reason to believe the hefty Aruban will improve this season.

The Twins will certainly contend in the AL Central to the very end. But even Johan Santana can’t pitch the team to the postseason all by himself. 

Chicago White Sox

The core of the team that won the 2005 World Series remains intact and still a viable force in the AL Central, led by the irascible Ozzie Guillen. Scott Podsednik and Tagato Iguchi are the table setters at the top of the order. Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko supply the power. Joe Crede gets better with every passing season at third. Juan Uribe is solid at short and the controversial A.J. Pierzynski backs it up as one of the AL’s better receivers. Jim Thome had a nice comeback year after being plagued with injuries during his stay with the Phillies.  

The starting rotation was inconsistent last year. Jon Garland led the way with 18 wins but Mark Buehrle and Jose Contreras appeared to burn out towards the end of last season. Javier Vazquez has also had better seasons. It will be interesting to see how John Danks, acquired in the Brandon McCarthy trade with the Texas Rangers, fills the number five position in the starting rotation. The bullpen appears solid with closer Bobby Jenks and a supporting cast of Matt Thornton, Mike MacDougall and David Aardsma. The acquisition of Andrew Sisco from the Kansas City Royals will be of help as well. 

The AL Central will be a three-team race but like with the Twins, there are too many questions in the starting rotation for them to reach the postseason.

Detroit Tigers

Nobody — and I mean nobody — predicted the Tigers to have a winning record, let alone get to the World Series last season. After all, Jim Leyland hadn’t managed a major league game in more than six years when he replaced Alan Trammell prior to last season. But the fire was back in his belly and he let his team know it. They were the biggest story in Major League Baseball last season.

The Tigers did not rely on any one player, even though they have superstar caliber players in Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez. Curtis Granderson, Craig Monroe, Marcus Thames, Placido Polanco, Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge were part of the core that had the best record in the American League for much of last season.

The pitching was led by American League Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander. Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson matured as pitchers and 42-year-old Kenny Rogers harnessed his energy on the field especially against the Yankees in the post-season. American League hitters had to contend with fireballers Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney before having to adjust to slow-throwing closer Todd Jones.  

Yet somehow I do not think they will replicate their 2006 success. Verlander is a candidate for the sophomore jinx. It is unclear whether Bonderman and Robertson can do it back-to-back seasons? Can the Tigers really rely on the aging Rogers and Jones. Of course, I sold Jones short when the Tigers signed him after his brilliant 2005 season with the Florida Marlins. But I somehow can’t imagine Jones pulling another rabbit out of his hat. As of this writing, Rogers has just been placed on the disabled list because of a fatigued arm and subsequently had surgery to remove a blood clot from his pitching shoulder. He will be out until at least the All-Star Break. This cannot bode well for the Tigers. I also cannot help but wonder if Monroe, Thames and company had career years in 2006.  

The Tigers did make some off-season moves. They acquired outfielder Gary Sheffield from the Yankees last November. However, Sheffield was injured most of last year and at 38 one wonders if he is well past his prime. The same could be said of Jose Mesa, who will presumably compliment Zumaya and Rodney in the bullpen. But unlike the Cleveland Indians signing 42-year-old Roberto Hernandez, the 40-year-old Mesa has always been wildly inconsistent. He’s either very, very good or very, very awful. 

After tasting the fruits of an American League Championship, the 2007 Tigers might end up eating humble pie. And it won’t be Peter Frampton who will be serving it.

Kansas City Royals

This team has lost 100 or more games the past three seasons and for four of the past five. They might just miss losing 100 games this season but will still finish in the cellar of the AL Central. Buddy Bell does not have much to work with here but he will make the best of it.

The most interesting player on this team is third baseman Mark Teahen, who had a fantastic second half. It’s far too early to declare him the second coming of George Brett but he is a player they can build the franchise around. If Tony Pena, Jr. has one-tenth the enthusiasm of his father he might prove to be a breath of fresh air. Joey Gathright provides some speed at the top of the order. 

The Royals did make one significant free agent acquisition, signing former Seattle Mariners pitcher Gil Meche. He is a decent starting pitcher who is a viable number three man. But the Royals are looking to him to be their ace and I believe this will prove to be a mistake. The Royals do have several reclamation projects in the likes of Odalis Perez and Octavio Dotel. Any contributions they can make will be a plus.

Mark Grudzielanek had a fine season at second base, winning his first Gold Glove after 12 seasons in the majors. But don’t be surprised if a contender trades for him by the end of July.   

It will take two to three seasons for the Royals to become a contender in the AL Central.

West

Oakland Athletics   95     67 __
Texas Rangers*   94     68  1
Seattle Mariners   79     83 16
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 62    100 33

* - denotes American League Wild Card winner

Oakland Athletics

After being swept in the American League Championship Series by the Detroit Tigers, manager Ken Macha was fired. His successor, Bob Geren, a former catcher for the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres, is a close friend of General Manager Billy Beane. Since Geren is in simpatico with Beane I believe the Athletics will repeat as AL West Division Champions.

Although Barry Zito was the last of the “big three” to leave the Athletics this off-season, they are not wanting for starting pitching. Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, Dan Haren and Esteban Loaiza are as good a starting four as any in the American League. Brad Halsey or former Red Sox pitcher Lenny DiNardo will probably fill out the rotation. Their bullpen is superb, led by closer Huston Street. Joe Kennedy, Justin Duchscherer, Chad Gaudin, Jay Witasick plus the addition of Alan Embree make for one of the deepest bullpens in Major League Baseball.

The Athletics possess a solid infield with Gold Glove third baseman Eric Chavez, shortstop Bobby Crosby, second baseman Mark Ellis and first baseman Dan Johnson. Although centerfielder Mark Kotsay will be out until mid-May after off-season back surgery, the Athletics' outfield still has plenty of depth with the likes of Milton Bradley, Bobby Kielty, Nick Swisher and former Twin Shannon Stewart.

DH Frank Thomas has gone up north to Toronto but Mike Piazza has been signed to fill his place. Piazza doesn’t have Thomas’ power but his experience should be an asset to a relatively young Oakland team.

Texas Rangers

I believe the Buck Showalter effect will be a factor for reasons other than Showalter has been shown the door. Ron Washington is the anti-Showalter. He’s a mild-mannered, patient diplomat who will let people relax. Look for the triumvirate of Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira and Michael Young to have their biggest seasons ever. The other member of the Rangers’ infield, Ian Kinsler, is only bound to get better. Gerald Laird is adequate behind the plate.

But the Rangers have also made some practical off-season moves. Although Kenny Lofton will turn 40 in May, his 32 stolen bases for the Dodgers last season indicate he can be a viable lead-off hitter. He can also still play a decent centerfield. Former Blue Jay Frank Catalanotto is a gritty player who has some pop in his bat.  

The acquisition of Brandon McCarthy will bolster a starting rotation consisting of Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla and Robinson Tejeda. After being the most dominant closer in the NL from 2002-2004, Eric Gagne has been plagued with injuries. But Gagne is a man on a mission.  If Gagne can stabilize the closer role as I believe he can, the Rangers have a legitimate post-season opportunity in the AL West. Joaquin Benoit, Akinori Otsuka and Ron Mahay will be prominent members of the Rangers’ middle relief core.  Well, it appears that Otsuka will be quite prominent, at least in the early part of 2007, because as I write this Gagne has just been placed on the DL. However, it appears that he will simply have an extended spring training and pitch on a rehab assignment basis.

The Rangers are, of course, not without challenges. Aside from Eric Gagne’s viability there are other questions.  Can Brad Wilkerson rebound from his disastrous 2006 season? Nelson Cruz and Jason Botts are unknown quantities. But these challenges are not insurmountable and a teacher like Washington is an ideal manager under these circumstances.

They won’t win the AL West but they will play well enough to win the AL Wild Card.

Seattle Mariners

There is nothing wrong with the Mariners’ pitching. Felix Hernandez is not yet 21 years old and last season he won 12 games. He is still maturing but he will be surrounded by veteran starters such as Horacio Ramirez (who was acquired from the Braves in the Rafael Soriano deal), ex-Diamondbacks pitcher Miguel Batista and the mercurial Jeff Weaver, who we last saw help the St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series. Jarrod Washburn also returns to the starting rotation, though he did struggle in 2006.  

J.J. Putz emerged as one of the best closers in the AL after Eddie Guardado was shipped to Cincinnati.   There was a scare concerning a strained pitching elbow, but Putz appears ready for the 2007 campaign.  Julio Mateo and George Sherill did a nice job in setting up Putz last season.

As for their offense, you can put Ichiro Suzuki down for 200 hits. Raul Ibanez had the quietest 30 homerun, 100 RBI season in the AL. Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre, who had disappointing campaigns in 2005, rebounded during the second half of last season. Ben Broussard was a nice mid-season pick up from the Indians and should make a nice contribution at first base. Yuniesky Betancourt is a delight to watch at shortstop. He also has a decent bat although he is very impatient at the plate. Catcher Kenji Johjima did a nice job during his first year in the majors after playing for a decade in Japan.
Former Washington Nationals Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro join the Mariners this season, though both had injury-plagued campaigns in 2006. 

Mike Hargrove’s Mariners are not a great team but neither are they a bad team. They are a year away from being a playoff threat.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Don’t get me started on Gary Matthews, Jr.  It has nothing to do with human growth hormone. After years as essentially a journeyman player, “Little Sarge” had a career year in 2006 for the Texas Rangers, highlighted by his catch robbing Houston’s Mike Lamb of a homerun. I don’t blame Matthews for taking the 5-year, $55 million contract. I just don’t think it will do much for either party. I’m also not sure about signing Justin Speier for $18 million over 4 years. Given Mike Scioscia’s disciplinarian nature I think the signing of Shea Hillenbrand is another Jose Guillen incident waiting to happen.

Vladimir Guerrero will put up his usual numbers but Juan Rivera (another guy with a career year in 2006) broke his leg while playing Winter Ball in Venezuela. Rivera will likely miss the entire 2007 season.   Third baseman Chone Figgins just broke two fingers in his throwing hand and will not likely return until mid-May, although the combination of Dallas McPherson and Robb Quinlan should fill in adequately for the time being.  

Can Howie Kendrick play second base on an everyday basis? Will Orlando Cabrera lose playing time to Macier Itzuris?  Will Garrett Anderson’s numbers continue to decline?

2005 AL Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon is still hurt. As is Jered Weaver, who had an impressive rookie season for the Angels last year. Young Dustin Moseley will replace Weaver in the rotation. If Moseley falters perhaps veteran southpaw Darren Oliver can step into the breach. Can Ervin Santana repeat his 16-win performance?  John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar are relatively dependable. Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez was sensational with 47 saves in 2006. Scott Shields is a vastly unheralded set-up man.   It remains to be seen what Speier and journeyman Hector Carrasco can offer. 

The Angels are not without their assets, many of whom were key contributors to the 2002 World Series Championship team. But the Angels also have aging veterans, untested youngsters and are rife with injuries. Scioscia has done wonders for the Angels but I believe this is the year where it all comes apart.

American League MVP – Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles
American League Cy Young Award – Erik Bedard, Baltimore Orioles
American League Rookie of the Year – John Danks, Chicago White Sox

NATIONAL LEAGUE

East

Atlanta Braves   94 68   __
Philadelphia Phillies  90 72    4
New York Mets  77 85   17
Washington Nationals  62       100   32
Florida Marlins  60       102   34

Atlanta Braves

The 2006 season represented the first time Bobby Cox’s team did not make the postseason since 1990.   I believe that this will prove to be an aberration. 

The Braves’ Achilles heel for most of last season was their bullpen. They seemed to rectify the situation somewhat with the acquisition of closer Bob Wickman from the Indians in late July. Although by that time it was too late for the Braves. This time around Wickman will be around for a full season. The veteran closer will have some help with the acquisition of right-handed fireballer Rafael Soriano and ex-Yankee Tanyon Sturtze. Soriano and Sturtze join a bullpen of Chad Paronto, Oscar Villareal and lefty Macay McBride. If that weren’t enough, ex-Pirates closer Mike Gonzalez is also in the mix. 

For years the foundation of the Braves’ championship teams was the starting three of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. Only Smoltz remains. He will be 40 in May but don’t write him off. He did manage to win 16 games on a mediocre team. One cannot help but think that Tim Hudson will rebound from a mediocre inaugural season with the Braves. Smoltz and Hudson are joined in the starting rotation by veteran lefty Mark Redman and youngsters Chuck James and Kyle Davies. It is hoped that Mike Hampton, who did not pitch in 2006 due to Tommy John surgery, will return in early May after injuring his oblique muscle during spring training.

Andruw Jones is in the final year of his contract with the Braves, so expect a big year out of him.   Chipper Jones managed a productive 26 homerun, 86 RBI campaign despite missing more than 50 games due to injury. Jeff Francoeur had a breakout season in 2006 and is poised to be the offensive star of this team for many years to come – even if he does seldom walk. Matt Diaz, Ryan Langerhans and ex-Pirate and Yankee Craig Wilson round out the outfield.

After a disastrous 2005 season in Boston, Edgar Renteria returned to form in the National League. Scott Thorman is an upcoming star in the making. The same can be said for catcher Brian McCann. The big unknown in 2007 is whether Martin Prado can play second base everyday as he replaces the departing Marcus Giles.  

The Braves should return to their winning form in 2007 even if the fans don’t show up at Turner Field.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies, it seems, have been on the cusp of greatness for nearly the entire decade. After a bad start in 2006, the Phillies came within three games of winning the NL Wild Card. The credit for last year’s effort can largely go to NL MVP Ryan Howard who, only in his second big league season, hit 58 homeruns and knocked in 149 runs while batting a cool .313. Second baseman Chase Utley also deserves a great deal of credit as the Phillies started winning during his 35-game hitting streak just after the All-Star Break.  Utley was wisely signed to a 7-year contract extension worth $85 million this past off-season.

Shortstop Jimmy Rollins has stated the Phillies are the team to beat in the NL East. On paper it is hard to argue with him.  Rollins is one of the NL’s top two or three shortstops. Their starting rotation is a manager’s dream. The Phillies have a surplus of starting pitchers. They added Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton in the off-season. They join Brett Myers, veteran Jon Lieber, young Cole Hamels and the ageless Jamie Moyer. Starting rotations don’t get much deeper. In the bullpen you have Tom “Flash” Gordon who is entering his 20th major league season. Although Gordon had not been a closer since he saved 27 games with the 2001 Chicago Cubs, Gordon stepped in and saved 34 games last season at the age of 38. In just under 60 innings pitched, Gordon struck out 68 batters. The Phillies have good set-up men in Geoff Geary and Ryan Madson. Aaron Rowand is an outstanding centerfielder (when he doesn’t break his nose).  When Rowand gets hurt, Shane Victorino can step in and do the job seamlessly.  

But the Phillies do have some holes. Third base is a question mark. At this point, it will be a combination of Wes Helms, Abraham Nunez and perhaps Greg Dobbs. How will catchers Rod Barajas and Carlos Ruiz handle the pitching staff?  Outside of Geary and Madson, the bullpen is actually shaky and Antonio Alfonseca doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. You also never know what you are going to get from Pat Burrell. Yes, he has power. But he also strikes out a lot. Entering the 2007 season, Burrell has 911 hits but has also struck out 1,017 times. The Phillies have been trying to unload Burrell for some time but he has a no-trade clause that permits only trades with the Red Sox, Yankees or a west coast team. None of these teams has expressed an interest in him.

Don’t get me wrong. The Phillies will win a lot of games this season. But there’s always something that keeps this team from grabbing the brass ring and I am not convinced they’ve fully addressed this matter. Should the Phillies not make the postseason or get off to another bad start, look for Charley Manuel not to be long as the Phillies’ skipper.

New York Mets

The Mets came within an inch of heading to the World Series in 2006. The Mets will be miles away in 2007.

Carlos Delgado did a nice job last season taking the heat off the soft-spoken Carlos Beltran. David Wright did so to a lesser extent. Yet Delgado and Beltran both struggled at Shea Stadium last season.   They got away with it in 2006 because of outstanding pitching. The Mets do not have that luxury in 2007.

Both Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez are hurt. Martinez’s torn calf in his left leg and torn rotator cuff on his pitching arm will keep Martinez out until at least mid-season. El Duque is scheduled to go North with the team but it is unclear his calf has healed significantly enough to pitch a full season. Tom Glavine is 10 wins away from 300 for his career and should win in double digits again in 2007. But how many Mets will do the same? John Maine and Oliver Perez will have to pick up the slack but it is far from clear that they are ready for prime time.  

Billy Wagner is a solid closer. But getting to him will be the problem. Duaner Sanchez has a cracked bone in his shoulder and will miss at least four months. Guillermo Mota is currently serving a 50-game suspension for violating MLB’s banned substances policy and will not return until May. It remains to be seen how effective Mota will be upon his return. While Aaron Heilmann and veteran lefty Scott Schoeneweis are reliable, the Mets will have to rely on Aaron Sele and Chan Ho Park as middle relievers.   These are roles to which neither are accustomed. What the Mets will get from Ambiroiz Burgos is anyone’s guess.

The Mets are getting old too. Can Jose Valentin repeat his pleasantly surprising season in 2007?  If he falters they will have to turn to another 37-year-old second baseman in Damion Easley. Shawn Green, Paul Lo Duca and David Newhan are two other members of the over 30 club. The Mets also signed Moises Alou in the off-season.  Alou turns 41 in July.  Hopefully the Mets will find the time to give generous amounts of playing time to Lastings Milledge and Endy Chavez. This is especially true in Chavez’s case, who did an outstanding job in the postseason, highlighted by his catch that robbed Scott Rolen of a homerun in Game 7 of the NLCS. The catch would be amazing unto itself. But Chavez had the werewithal to throw the ball back to second base and double off Jim Edmonds. Chavez deserves every opportunity to play on a regular basis in 2007.

Willie Randolph’s crew is going to get old on him faster than Rickey Henderson. The Mets will simply not compete as effectively against the Braves and Phillies in 2007.

Washington Nationals

Manny Acta succeeds Hall of Famer Frank Robinson at the helm of the Nationals. Acta spent the last two seasons as the third base coach for the New York Mets. He might wish he remained in the Big Apple.  Quite frankly Acta has very little with which to work.

Take the starting rotation, which will consist of John Patterson, Jerome Williams, Shawn Hill, Matt Chico and Jason Bergmann.  The five of them have a grand total of 44 major league wins between them.   Patterson and Williams have 40 of those wins. Patterson is being tapped as the ace of the staff even though he missed nearly the entire 2006 season due to an injury to his forearm. 

To give one an idea of how thin the starting rotation is, Jason Simontacchi had been penciled into the rotation despite the fact he has not pitched in the major leagues since 2004, when he was released by the St. Louis Cardinals. However, Simontacchi has gone down with a groin injury. Micah Bowie, at one time a top prospect in the Atlanta Braves organization, had not pitched in the majors since 2003 when he was called up to the Nationals late in the 2006 season. (He did pitch effectively out of the bullpen.)

The only thing keeping the Nationals out of last place is their bullpen, which is a pretty good one. And boy are they going to need it. The bullpen is anchored by closer Chad Cordero. Although not as effective as in 2005, Cordero did save 29 games last season for the Nats. Cordero is backed up by right-handers Saul Rivera and the 6'11 Jon Rauch, as well as lefties Ray King and the aforementioned Micah Bowie.   While King did not have an effective season in 2006 it must be remembered that he pitched in Colorado and that will screw up just about anyone. 

The Nationals' hitting is another story altogether. Gone is Alfonso Soriano and his 46 homeruns. Their power will be centered on third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and centerfielder Austin Kearns, who hit 20 and 24 homeruns, respectively.  Soriano still hit more homeruns than the two of them put together. To be fair, Zimmerman drove in 110 runs in his rookie campaign, but it remains to be seen if he can repeat this performance. Cristian Guzman will start at shortstop but he missed the entire 2006 season due to injury.  Guzman’s return forces Felipe Lopez to move to second. Although ex-Indian and Cardinal infielder Ronnie Belliard will fit into the mix somehow. Detroit Tiger castoff Dmitri Young will play first base. Brian Schneider and Robert Fick will platoon behind the plate. Chris Snelling, who played on the Australian national team at the 2000 Summer Olympics, was acquired in the Jose Vidro trade with the Seattle Mariners. He has enormous talent but is quite injury-prone. While not eligible to win NL Rookie of the Year, Snelling could be nominated for a Best Supporting Acta Award. Ryan Church and Nook Logan round out the outfield. 

This will be a long season in the Nation’s Capitol.

Florida Marlins

The Marlins were the second biggest story in Major League Baseball in 2006. Although their 78-84 record wouldn’t indicate it they were a force with which to be reckoned. The 2006 Marlins were full of rookies and expected to lose over 100 games. Instead, manager Joe Girardi’s disciplinarian approach kept the young Marlins in the hunt for the NL Wild Card well into August. However, Girardi and Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria had a falling out and Girardi was summarily dismissed shortly after the conclusion of the season. He was succeeded by former Atlanta Braves third base coach Fredi Gonzalez.

In 2006, the Marlins were baseball’s version of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid times ten. They did have a couple of established players in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. But no one expected the Marlins to have five starting pitchers win in double digits. Willis, Josh Johnson and Scott Olsen each won 12 games while Ricky Nolasco and ex-Red Sox farmhand Anibal Sanchez won 11 and 10 games respectively. Indeed, Sanchez tossed a no-hitter against the Arizona Diamondbacks in September. It was MLB’s first since Randy Johnson tossed a perfect game for the Diamondbacks against the Atlanta Braves in 2004. But can we realistically expect a replication of these stunning performances? With Willis, perhaps, but the others? It is worth noting that Josh Johnson is on the DL due to an irritated bicep. It was a problem that began last season when Girardi left Johnson in after a rain delay of nearly two hours. This might have been one of the events that led to Girardi’s demise. 

Rookies shined at the plate and in the field. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez, yet another former Red Sox prospect, won NL Rookie of the Year honors. The triumvirate of Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla and Josh Willingham showed unexpected power with 20, 27 and 26 homeruns, respectively. But again, can they repeat that performance in 2007. In 2006, it might have been, “Who are these guys?” But in 2007 there are no secrets. Indeed, the Marlins did struggle towards the end of the season. One could attribute it to exhaustion but one could also attribute it to the rest of the NL adapting to these guys.  

There are some veterans on this team such as third baseman Aaron Boone and middle reliever Kevin Gregg. But perhaps most troubling is their bullpen. Joe Borowski has gone to Cleveland and the Marlins expect Jorge Julio to close. Julio did have some decent years with the Baltimore Orioles between 2002 and 2004 but he was very wild.  He would eventually lose his job to B.J. Ryan.  Julio split 2006 between the Mets and Diamondbacks and wasn’t effective in either of those places. If Julio falters, will Taylor Tankersley or Logan Kensing be asked to step into the breach? The Marlins also don’t have a reliable everyday catcher so they will have to settle for a platoon of Miguel Olivo and Matt Treanor.

In 2006, the Florida Marlins took to baseball like fish to water. This year, the Marlins will more likely play like fish out of water.

Central

Houston Astros  95 67   __
Chicago Cubs *  92 70    3
St. Louis Cardinals  84 78   11
Cincinnati Reds  81 81   14
Milwaukee Brewers  77 85          18
Pittsburgh Pirates  69 93   26

* - Denotes NL Wild Card winner.

Houston Astros

For the past three seasons, the Astros have been the most dramatic teams in MLB.In 2004, the Astros were going nowhere in the NL Central. Jimy Williams was fired in favor of Phil Garner and lo and behold the Astros won the NL Wild Card and came within a game of reaching the World Series, only to lose to the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2005, the Astros started out even worse but then went gangbusters, gained revenge on the Cardinals and ended up reaching the World Series (only to be swept by the Chicago White Sox). The tale repeated itself during the final month of last season as the Astros nearly eliminated the Cardinals from their post-season triumph, but would ultimately be eliminated from postseason contention.

The Astros' biggest problem over the past three seasons has been their offense. Outside of Lance Berkman the team has no consistent power source. The Astros have addressed this in a big way by signing Carlos Lee to a 6-year, $100 million contract. Lee hit 37 homeruns and knocked in 116 runs with the Milwaukee Brewers and Texas Rangers. With Berkman’s 45 homeruns and 136 RBIs the Astros now have a consistent one-two punch. Lee joins an outfield of Chris Burke in center and a platoon of Jason Lane and Luke Scott in right.

Craig Biggio needs only 70 hits to join the 3,000 club. This is Biggio’s 20th season in an Astro uniform.   At 41, he will probably not play everyday and will share playing time with ex-Red Sox second baseman Mark Loretta. There is a good chance that Eric Bruntlett will see more time at shortstop this season because of Adam Everett’s weak hitting. Can Morgan Ensberg rebound from a disappointing 2006 season or will Mike Lamb see more playing time at third base? Brad Ausmus is a light hitter but is stellar behind the plate.

The Astros also added some starting pitching in the form of Jason Jennings via a trade with the Colorado Rockies, and signed free agent Woody Williams away from the San Diego Padres for a 2-year, $12.5 million deal. Now Jennings hasn’t had a winning season since winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2002, but Jennings did have to pitch in Colorado, so his results should improve in 2007. Williams is 40 but he did have a 12-5 record with a Padres team that won the NL West.

Jennings and Williams join a rotation consisting of ace Roy Oswalt and southpaw Wandy Rodriguez and young Fernando Nieve. The bullpen is led by Brad Lidge. Although Lidge at times struggled last season, seemingly unable to shake the homerun he gave up to Albert Pujols in Game 6 of the 2005 NLCS, he did still save 32 games last season. If Lidge still has problems, Dan Wheeler is waiting in the wings. Chad Qualls, Trever Miller and Dave Borkowski round out this battled tested bullpen.

The Astros are not without their challenges but Phil Garner has always found a way for them to win under pressure. I believe they will not only win the NL Central but represent the NL in the World Series for the second time in three years.

Chicago Cubs

After a year in the broadcast booth, Lou Piniella has returned to the dugout to manage his fourth major league team.  

The biggest excitement in Wrigleyville was the free agent signing of Alfonso Soriano to an 8-year. $136 million contract. It remains to be seen how we will perform with the ivy in centerfield but he will certainly hit for power and steal bases. He hit 46 homeruns and stole 41 bases for the Washington Nationals in 2006. Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and a healthy Derek Lee will comprise the NL’s most potent number three, four and five hitters. Left field will be an interesting combination of Matt Murton, Daryle Ward and former Met Cliff Floyd while Jacque Jones will play in right. Cesar Izturis and ex-Ranger Mark DeRosa should do a nice job up the middle. Michael Barrett will return as the Cubs' number one catcher.  

The other significant difference with the Cubs is that they have learned not to depend on the injury-prone Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Prior will start the 2007 season at Triple A Iowa and Wood might join him.   Carlos Zambrano is now the ace, with three straight winning seasons, and has been a 16-game winner two of the last three. Joining him are ex-Blue Jay lefty Ted Lilly, ex-Cardinal Jason Marquis, another lefty Rich Hill and Wade Miller. There are risks within this rotation. Marquis did win 14 games last season with the Cardinals but also led the NL in losses with 16, in earned runs with 130 and had a 6.02 ERA. But a change of scenery might benefit Marquis. Miller, of course, has been nearly as fragile as Wood and Prior and hasn’t pitched a full season since 2003. Juan Mateo would probably get a chance to start should Miller go down and if neither Wood nor Prior are ready. Then, of course, there’s Zambrano’s legendary temper.  But they will be interesting to watch.

The Cubs have not seen fit to replace Ryan Dempster as their closer, although he blew nine save opportunities in 2006. However, the Cubs have a bullpen full of middle relievers such as Bobby Howry, Michael Wuertz, Will Ohman, Scott Eyre and ex-White Sox pitcher Neal Cotts. If Dempster continues to struggle in 2007 the Cubs will need to find a closer in a hurry if they are to contend in the NL Central.

The Cubs have not been the same since the 2003 NLCS debacle against the Florida Marlins, and Dusty Baker just couldn’t get them out of it. Piniella’s fire might be just what the doctor ordered plus a healthy dosage of Soriano’s bat. They will be good enough to win the NL Wild Card.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals won the 2006 World Series despite having an 83-79 record. No team has ever won the Fall Classic with a worse won-loss record. It just goes to show one cannot underestimate Tony La Russa, who joins Sparky Anderson as the only managers to have have led their teams to World Series titles in both the AL and NL.

One must also not underestimate the greatness of Albert Pujols, who hit a career-high 49 homeruns and 137 RBIs despite missing 19 games due to a mid-season injury. At 27, he already has 250 career homeruns and has not yet reached his prime.

Joining Pujols in the infield is the scrappy David Eckstein at shortstop and third baseman Scott Rolen, who enjoyed a nice 2006 after being injured for most of the 2005 season with a bad shoulder. Former Angel Adam Kennedy returns to the team where he began his major league career in 1999; he will be Eckstein’s double play partner at second base. Yadier Molina is the best of three catching Molina brothers.

The Cardinals opted to re-sign Jim Edmonds despite his missing more than 50 games with a concussion.   It is unclear how well the 36-year-old Edmonds will hold up. But the Cardinals do have a deep outfield with Preston Wilson, Chris Duncan, Scott Spiezio and So Taguchi. 

The Redbirds' biggest Achilles heel is their starting pitching. On the surface, it might seem an odd assessment. After all their ace is 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter, who finished third in the 2006 NL Cy Young balloting with a 15-8 record.  But Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver have departed and Mark Mulder is hurt. After Carpenter the rotation is very thin. Anthony Reyes pitched well in the 2006 World Series but has not pitched a full season in the majors. Relievers Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper have been vaulted into the starting rotation. Again, Wainwright and Looper pitched well during the postseason but they are untested as starters. The Cards also signed free agent pitcher Kip Wells but last season he had surgery to remove a blood clot from his pitching arm.

The Cardinals do have a deep bullpen led by Jason Isringhausen (who missed last year’s postseason due to injury). Tyler Johnson, Josh Hancock, Randy Flores, Russ Springer and ex-Phillie Ryan Franklin will help make up for a less than stellar starting rotation.

Indeed, I believe the Cardinals will have a better won loss record in 2007 than in 2006. But it won’t be enough to compete with the Astros and Cubs in the NL Central.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds finished 2006 with an 82-80 record. I predict they will finish 2007 with an 81-81 record. So things will be about the same. Adam Dunn will hit 40 homeruns.  Ken Griffey, Jr. will hit 20-25 homeruns and have a season-ending injury. Ryan Freel will get his uniform dirty. Bronson Arroyo will be the team’s poster boy. Jerry Narron will bring out the lineup card.

There will be some changes. Gold Glove shortstop Alex Gonzalez solidifies the infield and should make some nice plays with second baseman Brandon Phillips. Scott Hatteberg and Jeff Conine add a veteran presence to the team. The big wild card is how ex-Devil Rays prospect Josh Hamilton will do in centerfield. Will he be grand in April but be playing in Louisville by Memorial Day?  

The starting rotation will be anchored by Arroyo and Aaron Harang, who combined for 30 wins last season. It remains to be seen if they can repeat their 2006 performances. They are joined by the injury-prone Eric Milton, another ex-Twin Kyle Lohse and former Athletics pitcher Kirk Saarloos. The bullpen will have to do without Eddie Guardado until at least the All-Star break. Until then veteran David Weathers and Todd Coffey will have to fill the breach. They are joined by Matt Belisle, Bill Bray and veteran southpaw Mike Stanton. 

Again, an average team that will finish with an average record.

Milwaukee Brewers

After finishing the 2005 with an 81-81 record, the Brewers took a step backwards to a 75-87 record. Ned Yost returns as manager for a fifth season.

The Brew Crew have some of the most underrated players in the game. At the top of the list is centerfielder Billy Hall, who hit 35 homeruns last season. It may have been the quietest 35 homeruns ever hit. Prince Fielder has certainly inherited his father Cecil’s power, clubbing 28 homeruns in his first full big league season. But he has also inherited his father’s propensity to strikeout. Fielder struck out 125 times in 2006, finishing just out of the top ten in that category. Hall struck out 162 times, finishing third in the NL in that category. That will kill a lot of rallies.

The Brewers are stocked with some good players though not great players. Geoff Jenkins, Kevin Mench, Corey Koskie, Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino are good dependable veteran players. Johnny Estrada and Damian Miller make for a nice platoon behind the plate. Rickie Weeks has some speed at second base and on the base paths.

The Brew Crew did make one significant free agent signing, obtaining Jeff Suppan from the World Series Champion Cardinals. Suppan had three very good seasons with the Cardinals but now he is expected to be the ace of the staff, something I don’t think will suit him so well. Ben Sheets is spectacular when he is healthy but too often he is not healthy. Claudio Vargas was a nice pick up from the Arizona Diamondbacks. It will be interesting to chart the progress of Chris Capuano and David Bush. Milwaukee has a decent starting rotation.

Derrick Turnbow began the 2006 season as the Brewers' closer but was ineffective. When Carlos Lee was dealt to the Rangers, Francisco Cordero took over the closer’s role. Although more effective than Turnbow he too had struggles but remains as the closer.  The Brewers have added ex-Diamondback Greg Aquino and ex-Dodger Elmer Dessens to a bullpen that includes Matt Wise, Jose Cappellan and lefty Brian Shouse.  

The Brewers will be marginally better in 2007 but it might not be enough for Yost to keep his job beyond this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Bucs have not enjoyed a winning season since 1992 when they last captured the National League East title under Jim Leyland. There’s no reason to believe things will be much different in 2007.

This is not to say the Bucs are lacking for notable players. Former Boston Red Sox farmhand Freddy Sanchez became the first Pirate to win a battling title since Bill Madlock turned the trick in 1983.   Unfortunately for the Bucs, Sanchez begins 2007 on the DL with a sprained knee, although they are optimistic he’ll be ready for the home opener on April 9th. 

If Sanchez is healthy he will be moving to second base in 2007. This will clear the way for Jose Bautista to play third.  He has some power and a good eye at the plate. Veteran Jack Wilson will be at short and ex-Atlanta Brave Adam LaRoche will be at first. Xavier Nady will be spend time at first and in the outfield. Ronny Paulino will be the Bucs' number one catcher.

Jason Bay is the Bucs' one bonafide power hitter, with 35 homeruns and 109 RBI and a respectable .286 batting average last season. Chris Duffy contributed with 26 stolen bases from the lead off spot. Jose Castillo will fill in at second while Sanchez is out. Unfortunately, the Bucs don’t have much in the way of a bench.  

The Bucs’ starting rotation is anchored by two young pitchers, Zach Duke and Ian Snell. Duke was the Pirates' top pitching prospect and went 10-15 in his first full season in the majors in 2006. Snell blossomed in 2006 with 14-11 record and became the pride of Delaware. Duke and Snell are joined by free agent Tony Armas, Jr and Paul Maholm and Tom Gorzelanny. Shawn Chacon might also get some starts but he struggled with the Bucs last season after a mid-season trade with the Yankees. The Bucs' rotation is promising but four of them are still learning and Armas has never been a consistent major league starter, going 48-60 over eight big league seasons with the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals.  

With the departure of Mike Gonzalez, Solomon Torres will step into the closer’s role. He will be set up by Damaso Marte and Matt Capps, who had an impressive, if unheralded rookie season in Pittsburgh.  

Jim Tracy is in his second season as Pirates manager. It will be marginally better than his first. But the Bucs will still finish in the cellar of the NL Central.

West

Los Angeles Dodgers  92 70  __
San Diego Padres  91 71   1
Colorado Rockies  82 80  10
Arizona Diamondbacks 73  89  19
San Francisco Giants  67 95  25

Los Angeles Dodgers

At times the Dodgers look like the Boston Red Sox West.   After all with Grady Little as skipper, Derek Lowe and Nomar Garciaparra one cannot escape the feel of Fenway on this team.  

But that would only scratch the surface.   The left side of the infield includes Rafael Furcal at short and the vastly underrated Wilson Betemit at third.   Jeff Kent was wobbled by injuries and this perennial 100 RBI man only drove in 65 in 2006.   But there’s still life in the 39 year old slugger.   Luis Gonzalez is also 39 and will have something to prove after being unceremoniously dumped by the Arizona Diamondbacks five years after getting the game winning hit in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series.  

The Dodgers signed speedster Juan Pierre who collected 204 hits for the Cubs after a slow start.   Pierre is joined in the outfield by Andre Ethier and ex-Brewer Brady Clark.
Mike Lieberthal and Russell Martin will share catching duties.   The Dodgers also boast one the NL’s deepest benches with the likes of Marlon Anderson, James Loney and Olmedo Saenz.

The Dodgers have a solid starting rotation with Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Brett Tomko.   They are joined this season by ex-Giant Jason Schmidt and ex-Phillie Randy Wolf.   Schmidt has struggled the last two seasons after finishing in the top five in the NL Cy Young balloting in 2003 and 2004.  He has something to prove to the Giants and what better place to do it than in a Dodgers uniform.   Wolf has been plagued by injuries the past three seasons.   Should they return Taiwanese sensation Hong-Chih Kuo would be set to fill in.  

The Dodgers bullpen is led by Japanese closer Takashi Saito.  He has strong support from Chad Billingsley , Jonathan Broxton, Mark Hendrickson and lefty Joe Beimel.   The Dodgers are giving Beimel another chance after he cut his hand on glass at a bar right before the NLDS against the Mets.   Beimel had originally claimed he cut his hand in his hotel room.  His good work in 2006 plus genuine contrition on his part have earned him a second chance.   A healthy Yhency Brazoban would also be an asset.

The Dodgers are the class of the NL West.  It will be a tight pennant race with the Padres once again but the team from Chavez Ravine should prevail this time out.

San Diego Padres

Former Angels pitching coach Bud Black succeeds Bruce Bochy who opted to go north to San Francisco after twelve seasons at the helm of the Padres.

Black has a good starting rotation with which to work.   It features three 11 game winners in Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Clay Hensley.   Throw in future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux and David Wells and you’ve got a starting rotation.   Speaking of future Hall of Famers what about Trevor Hoffman who merely has the all time Major League lead in saves with 482 including 46 last season.   The 39 year old Hoffman shows little sign of slowing down apart from his change up.   Hoffman is backed up nicely by Scott Linebrink and former Red Sox farmhand Cla Meredith. 

Speaking of former Red Sox players, Josh Bard did a nice job behind the plate for the Padres after he couldn’t handle Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball.   He’s back as the Padres number one catcher after splitting time with Mike Piazza last season.   The infield consists of power hitting Adrian Gonzalez at first, smooth fielding Khalil Greene at short, not so smooth fielding Russell Branyan at third and former Brave Marcus Giles at second replacing Josh Barfield.   He will be reunited with his older Brian Giles who is again in right field while Mike Cameron patrols center.   Left field will be somewhat difficult to sort out with Termel Sledge, Paul McAnulty and the well traveled Jose Cruz, Jr.  

The Padres pitching is good and their hitting is adequate.   There are questions at third base and left field but the Padres should contend for the NL West but just fall short of the division and the Wild Card.

Colorado Rockies

One thing we know the Colorado Rockies do well is hit.  They have a core of hitters who can hit for both average and power including Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, Garrett Atkins and Todd Helton who enters the 2007 season with 1700 career hits. 

Holliday and Hawpe comprise two thirds of the outfield.   Playing centerfield this season is a combination of ex-Astros speedster Willy Taveras and 42 year old veteran Steve Finley.   Atkins and Helton occupy the corners of the Rockies infield.   Jamey Carroll and Kazuo Matsui will platoon at second.   The Clint Barmes experiment is over as Troy Tulowitski will get a shot to start at shortstop.  Yorvit Torrealba and Chris Ianetta will platoon behind the plate.  

As I’ve alluded elsewhere in the article, pitching for the Rockies is like being a cook at Leavenworth or auditioning for Thunderclap Newman.   There’s something in the air.   And it usually isn’t very good.  Canadian Jeff Francis is the Rockies number one starter posting a 13-11 record in 2006.   He is followed by Aaron Cook who had 9 wins but also lost 15.  The rest of the rotation will be filled by ex-San Diego Padre Brian Lawrence, ex-Baltimore Oriole Rodrigo Lopez and Josh Fogg (see I told you there was something in the air).   Lawrence was dealt to the Washington Nationals but did not pitch in 2006 after a torn rotator cuff was discovered.   Lopez went 9-18 with a 5.90 ERA with the O’s in 2006.   If he pitched badly in Baltimore what makes anyone think he will pitch better in Denver?  Jason Hirsh and former Astros pitcher Taylor Buchholz will also get some starts this season.

The Rockies do have actually have a good bullpen.   Brian Fuentes saved 30 games for the Rockies last season.  He is joined by Ramon Ramirez, Manny Corpas and Jeremy Affeldt.   Byung-Hyun Kim, who started in 2006, will begin 2007 in the bullpen although he has been ineffective in that role.   Whoever else doesn’t make the starting rotation will see time in the bullpen.  

This is Clint Hurdle’s 6th season managing the Rockies.   He has not produced a winning record in any of his five seasons at the helm although the Rockies 76-86 was his best effort yet.   The Rockies have problems and always will with the thin air of Denver.   But there’s every reason to believe that the Rockies will be one of baseball’s big surprises.   Not surprising enough to go to the post-season but surprising enough to finish a respectable third place in the NL West.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The D’Backs have a trio of exciting young players – first baseman Conor Jackson and outfielders Carlos Quentin and Chris Young.   Jackson had a decent rookie season in 2006 and Quentin made enough of an impression to make Luis Gonzalez expendable.   But Chris Young might be the best of the bunch.   If he lives up to his expectations do not be surprised to see the Diamondbacks part with Eric Byrnes before the season is over.

Jackson is joined in the infield by power hitting Chad Tracy at third, Stephen Drew at short (J.D.’s younger brother) and Orlando Hudson at second.   And veteran Tony Clark still looms large on the bench.  Their catching situation is a bit uncertain.  It looks like Chris Snyder will work the majority of the time behind the plate but Miguel Montero and Robby Hammock might not take it lying down.   Scott Hairston and Jeff DaVanon round out the outfield.

The D’Backs starting rotation is led by NL Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb whose 16 wins were enough to earn the honor.   Webb is joined by innings eater Livan Hernandez, ex-Brewer Doug Davis and the “Big Unit” Randy Johnson who returns to Phoenix after two seasons wearing a New York Yankees uniform.   Johnson might be more comfortable pitching in his hometown but he is 43.  A number five starter will either be Edgar Gonzalez or Juan Cruz.

Jose Valverde, who saved 18 games for the D’Backs in 2006, enters 2007 as their closer but he doesn’t have much help apart from the Brandons – Lyon and Medders.   The Arizona Diamondbacks might very well be the only team in Major League history who have three pitchers with the first name Brandon.  How manager Bob Melvin can tell them apart amazes me.

The D’Backs have some exciting players who are not quite ready for prime time but might in another two or three seasons.   They also have some veterans past their prime.   If the D’Backs are seeking balance this is not the way to achieve it.  At least not in 2007.

San Francisco Giants

They might not be old enough to appear in a commercial for AARP but the Giants are the oldest team in MLB.   They have six players over the age of 35 – Mark Sweeney, Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Ryan Klesko, Omar Vizquel and Barry Bonds.   Of these five, Bonds is 42 and Vizquel turns 40 on April 24th.   Relievers Armando Benitez and Steve Kline will be 35 before the end of 2007.  If that was not enough there are six additional players who are over 30 – catcher Bengie Molina, third baseman Pedro Feliz, outfielder Dave Roberts and starting pitchers Matt Morris and Russ Ortiz.  Folks that is more than half the roster.  Age, in of itself, is not a bad thing.   Indeed to quote Satchel Paige it is a question of mind over matter.   If you don’t mind it doesn’t matter.   Although new Giants manager Bruce Bochy might mind by the time the season’s over.  

Of course, the Giants will be distracted by Barry Bonds pursuit of Hank Aaron, steroids controversy or not.   Should Bonds pass Aaron in 2007 there’s still the matter of playing in the NL West.  The Giants did sign Barry Zito to a seven year $126 million contract this past off season.   The Giants obviously want another Barry to be the face of the team.   His 16 wins for Oakland last season was his best effort since winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2002.  Zito will be joined by the aforementioned Morris and Ortiz as well as Noah Lowry and Matt Cain, two pitchers in their twenties if you can imagine.   Lowry and Cain are bound to get better.   The question is will they do so in 2007.   Morris struggled in his first season with the Giants and Ortiz went 0-8 with an atrocious 8.14 ERA with the D’Backs and Orioles last season.  

Armando Benitez had mixed results as the closer in 2006.  He is joined by Steve Kline, Vinnie Chulk, Kevin Correia and Brian Wilson.   The bullpen is so-so but then again God only knows.  

One player I will be keeping my eye on is first baseman Lance Niekro.   His father the former knuckleball pitcher Joe Niekro died suddenly of a brain aneurysm last October.  He was only 61.   It will be interesting to see how he responds to this tragic event this season.   Niekro could be the future of the San Francisco Giants and that future could begin in 2007.   It might prove to be one of the few bright spots this season.   Bruce Bochy may wish he had remained in San Diego.

National League MVP – Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
National League Cy Young Award – Jason Schmidt, Los Angeles Dodgers
National League Rookie of the Year – Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks

Post-Season Predictions

American League Division Series (best three out of five games) – New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers.  Rangers win 3-2.

American League Division Series (best three out of five games) – Cleveland Indians vs. Oakland Athletics.   Athletics win 3-2.

American League Championship Series (best four out of seven games) – Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics.   Rangers win 4-2.

National League Division Series (best three out of five games) – Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers.   Astros win 3-1.

National League Division Series (best three out of five games) – Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs.   Cubs win 3-1.

National League Championship Series (best four out of seven games) – Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs.   Astros win 4-3.

2007 World Series – Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros (best four out of seven games). Rangers win 4-2. 

So there you have it.  There are my predictions for Major League Baseball in 2007.  We’ll see how I did in October. In the meantime, let’s enjoy some baseball.

Culture: Sports

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