Experts Surprised

 by Phillip Ellis Jackson  

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It’s a good thing we have a legion of experts to guide us through the trials and tribulations of life.  Otherwise, we might not have any idea about what is really going on.

* * *

Man-made global warming is real.  The war in Iraq is lost. Bush is ruining the economy.

How do we know this?  “Experts” have told us so.  But don’t look too closely at the man behind the curtain, because then you’ll see how the experts’ pronouncements have stacked up against reality in recent years.

ECONOMY

“Retail Sales Up Surprising 1.1 Percent”
Associated Press, July 12, 2002
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,57530,00.html

“Unemployment Dips, Surprising Many”
CBS News, October 10, 2002
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/10/11/national/main525206.shtml

“Job growth showed surprising strength in November”
CNN Money.com, December 8, 2006
http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/08/news/economy/jobs_november/index.htm?cnn=yes

“Retail sales show surprising strength with 1% gain”
Market Watch, December 13, 2006
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/retail-sales-show-surprising-strength/story.aspx?guid={45BD692F-6777-4090-ABFE-BD49A34EE492}

“Surprising contrarian sentiment hints bull market isn't done yet”
Market Watch, December 15, 2006
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/surprising-contrarian-sentiment-hints-bull/story.aspx?guid={294CDB3D-DEA5-4078-96FA-65ECA82F0E69}

“Durable Goods Picture Shows Surprising Strength”
New York Times, April 26, 2007
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/26/business/26econ.html?_r=1&n=Top%2fReference%2fTimes%20Topics%2fSubjects%2fD%2fDurable%20Goods%20%28Economic%20Indicator%29&oref=slogin

“Productivity Grows At Surprising Clip”
Reuters, May 3, 2007
http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSN0236129020070503

“Profits from U.S. companies are likely to surprise … as economic growth has proven stronger than expected”
Reuters, July 6, 2007
http://www.boston.com/business/markets/articles/2007/07/06/us_2nd_quarter_profits_seen_surprising_to_upside/

“Surprising Strength in Jobs Market”
Portfolio, September 20, 2007
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/top-5/2007/09/20/Surprising-Strength-in-Jobs-Market

SCIENCE

“Health Experts Surprised at Rapid Spread of Bird Flu”
New York Times, February 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/20/health/20flu.html?ex=1298091600&en=881853b7e1a676d6&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss

“Weather Experts Surprised By Back-To-Back Storms”
CBS4Denver, December 28, 2006
http://cbs4denver.com/topstories/local_story_362135957.html

“Placebos Prove So Powerful Even Experts Are Surprised”
New York Times, September 28, 2007
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CEED9163AF930A25753C1A96E958260

“Experts Surprised Diseases Don't Escape From Labs More Often”
International Herald Tribune, August 9, 2007
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/08/09/europe/EU-GEN-Foot-and-Mouth-Bio-Insecurity.php

WAR

“Surprising levels of optimism prevail in Iraq with living conditions improved, security more a national worry than a local one, and expectations for the future high”
ABC News, December 12, 2005
http://abcnews.go.com/International/PollVault/story?id=1389228&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312

“Poll finds surprising optimists: Iraqis and Afghans are among the most optimistic people in the world when it comes to their economic future, a new survey for the BBC suggests”
BBC News, January 24, 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4641396.stm

“In what might be called the mother of all surprises, Iraq's economy is growing strong, even booming in places”
Newsweek, December 25, 2006
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16241340/site/newsweek

Why are “experts” so often surprised when reality walks up and smacks them in the face?  The answer usually falls into three related categories.

First, there’s the whole notion of what constitutes an “expert.”  Whenever someone is trotted out by the media with the “expert” label prominently attached to his/her name, there’s an immediate assumption that the person is either (a) highly educated in that field, (b) highly experienced in that field, or (c) a combination of both (a) and (b).  But this isn’t necessarily the case. If your news program is anchored in Washington, New York or Atlanta, chances are some guy from Nebraska isn’t going to get a call to sit down with the editorial staff of the New York Times, or show up for a live interview with Katie Couric, Charlie Gibson, or Matt Lauer.  Like any good Realtor will tell you, in the arena of ideas it’s Location, Location and Location that matters, in exactly that order. 

Sure, technology has advanced to the point where split screens and remote hookups are infinitely possible, but these are reserved for the real experts; the NASA astronauts in Florida who will talk about the mechanics of spaceflight, or the FAA investigator on-site at a crash location — you know, people who actually do the things being discussed for a living.  But when the subject is something as mundane as, say, Constitutional Rights, climate change, or American foreign policy, anybody with an embossed business card touting his/her self-defined credentials, who lives in the right geographic area, can became an instant media expert.  How else do you explain Jonathan Turley as the foremost legal mind in the United States, or the fact that Al Gore is seen as the leading expert on greenhouse gases in the world today, with an Emmy and Academy Award to “prove” his credentials?   All of which leads to point Number 2.

Second, where the general public starts with the assumption that “expert” implies expertise, that title has become more honorific than descriptive in recent years.  Like those knighted by the King or Queen of Great Britain in the last couple of centuries, Sir Paul McCartney and Sir Ben Kingsley are not expected to defend England with their sword and otherwise perform the chivalrous duties previously associated with this status.  In America we lack the artificial status bestowed by a class system, so we’ve chosen to invent our own special designation to honor people for their perceived accomplishments and self-absorbed good intentions.

So, the guy who once shucked tobacco to get elected to Congress and accepted illegal campaign contributions from foreign governments (who were among the world’s biggest polluters) is now deemed the principal Defender of the Climate on Planet Earth.  His credentials are eight years as Vice President to the second man in our nation’s history to be impeached for his actions in office, a videotaped power point presentation that shows polar bears cavorting on ice flows as part of their natural behavior (to which he assigns apocalyptic significance), numerous fawning and self-congratulatory accolades by Hollywood, and a house for himself and his wife large enough to encompass two square blocks of downtown Manhattan, whose obscene energy consumption will be offset by the purchase of mythical “Carbon Credits” which, conveniently, he controls through another business interest of his.  This is what it means today to be an “expert” on global warming.  Al means well, and is really really really interested in the planet’s welfare, so we should pay more attention to his pronouncements about the environment than some guy at MIT who actually studies the sun, and thinks that increased solar output might account for any rise in global temperatures.  Which leads to point Number 3.

Third, the hand-selected “experts” chosen by the mainstream media to tell us what is what come with an enormous amount of personal baggage and hidden agendas that significantly influence their expert judgments.  When you start with the assumption that Bush is a moron who is screwing up the country, it’s always a “surprise” that the economy is doing “better than expected,” or the war in Iraq is going “better than anyone thought.”

And if things are not as horrible as the experts predicted, then one shouldn’t question the experts’ original assumptions.  No, all that is needed is the introduction of a second factor to bring things back down a notch or two.  The surge may be working, but not as well as it should; or only in a few provinces but not the entire country yet; or the political situation in Iraq is still bad so a successful surge doesn’t really count.  Or, closer to home, the stock market may be rising but gas prices are high too; gas prices may be falling now but some children in Detroit are still hungry; the economy may be booming but this means that inflation will soon be out of control; inflation is under control but New Orleans was hit by a hurricane and the corrupt political system there didn’t save the people, so Bush is at fault.  You get the idea.

So, what can we learn from all of this?  Foolishly, I wasted a lot of my life getting an education, and working in the public, private and non-profit sectors, to provide a basis for my analysis of political, social and economic events.  I should have just moved to Washington, New York or Atlanta, joined a liberal agenda-driven organization, and proclaimed myself to be an expert because “I care,” and am willing to say whatever it takes to get some face time with Katie, Charlie and Matt. 

It wouldn’t matter then whether my expert judgment was proven right or wrong by world events.  Life is full of “surprises,” and a strong growing economy when I predicted a full-blown recession would be one of those occasions.  The fact that my prediction is wrong wouldn’t cause me to revise my assumptions or even change my subsequent predictions.  Predict that someone will die enough times, as my Sicilian wife occasionally reminds me, and eventually that prediction will come true.  Like a stopped clock that gives the correct time twice a day, if I just stick to my insane predictions eventually one of them will come true (for reasons other than those I assumed to make the prediction).  This will validate my expertise, and get me invited back on the Today Show or quoted again in the New York Times when another political hit-job is required.

And if I’m smart enough, as Man-Made Global Warming advocates are today, I’ll predict outcomes a century or two away when we’ll all be dead, instead of doing the Ted Danson two-step and giving the oceans 25 years to die 30 years ago.  But even Ted has learned from his mistakes.  No, he isn’t revising his assumptions.  He’s just dropping off the date-certain for the dire event to take place.

Being an expert for the liberal media means never having to say you’re sorry — to borrow a line from an old movie — and it certainly never means having to see your predictions come true.  As long as your pronouncements serve the correct political agenda, any deviance with reality can be explained away by the headline “Experts Surprised.”

This will start the cycle all over again, where caring about politically correct causes, in the politically correct way, is all that matters to get your name in print or some face time on TV as one of the country’s “leading experts” on this subject or that.

And hating Bush too wouldn’t hurt.

Culture: General, Culture: Media

Read more articles by Phillip Ellis Jackson