Even though he is not yet officially running, Al Gore is still a strong contender for the Democratic Nomination.

People have speculated about Al Gore running for president again since shortly after the 2000 election.  The surprising success of An Inconvenient Truth brought speculation about a 2008 run to a new height; though expectations of a Gore campaign have since dwindled because he has still not declared his candidacy.  Nevertheless, I believe that Al Gore is likely to seek the Democratic nomination and that he has an extremely good chance of winning it.  Al Gore has repeatedly declined to state that he will not run, saying in 2006 "I haven't completely ruled it out."  It could be that he is simply waiting for the perfect moment to launch his candidacy.

On October 12, the Nobel Committee appointed by the Norwegian Parliament announces the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize (the Peace Prize is the one Nobel Prize awarded by the Norwegians rather than the Swedes).  Al Gore is a leading contender for this award as a result of his work publicizing the dangers of global warming.  Al Gore could ride the tremendous wave of publicity and goodwill that results in order to win the Iowa Caucus three months later on January 14, 2008, the Nevada Caucus five days subsequently on January 19, and the New Hampshire Primary three days after that on January 22, eventually securing the Democratic Nomination. 

As Mark Twain said, “it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”  Nevertheless, I will explain the reasons why Al Gore is likely to win the Nobel Peace Prize, and why, if he does, he is likely to win the Democratic Primary Election.

In the past several years, the definition of "peace" has expanded considerably to include more than its traditional meaning of an absence of violence and coercion.  Many people now use the phrase "positive peace" to mean a combination of prosperity, social and economic equality, and environmental sustainability along with the absence of violence and coercion.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee certainly uses this expanded definition of peace.  In 2006 the Peace Prize was given to Muhammad Yunus for his pioneering work in microcredit, making small loans to desperately poor people in order to foster economic development.  In 2004 the Peace Prize was given to Wangari Maathai for her work protecting Kenyan nature preserves and for her campaign to plant 30 million trees in Kenya, preventing soil erosion.  Al Gore’s environmental work fits into this modern definition of peace – that is to say anything that is good.
 
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has shown in the past that they are willing to use the Peace Prize to influence American politics.  In December 2002, Jimmy Carter won a Nobel Peace Prize for brokering the Camp David Peace Accords between Israel and Egypt in 1978 and for his humanitarian work since 1982, including founding Habitat for Humanity.  The timing of his award is worth noting.  It cannot be coincidence that a former Democratic President and outspoken critic of the Bush Administration received the Peace Prize as Hans Blix was searching Iraq for weapons of mass destruction and as Colin Powel laid out the American position before the UN Security Council.  The opportunity to make another comment on George Bush and his unilateralism must surely be tempting to the Nobel Committee.

Many people believe that Al Gore has abandoned his presidential ambitions and will not run.  However, a man like Al Gore doesn’t stop wanting to be President just because he lost an election – just look at John McCain or Jonathan Edwards.  Indeed, losing an election didn’t make Al Gore stop wanting to be president – he first ran against Michael Dukakis in 1988.  Gore has been doing many things to position himself for a run.  Last month he sold his Japanese-owned Lexus hybrid SUV after representatives from the United Auto Workers Union told him that they would not endorse a candidate who drove a non-American car.  Gore replaced the Lexus with a Mercury Mariner hybrid SUV manufactured by Ford. 

Currently claiming that he has no plans of running but declaring his candidacy when he receives the Peace Prize provides Gore with a huge advantage.  One of Al Gore’s biggest weaknesses (and one of the biggest weaknesses of his rival, Hilary Clinton) is the popular perception that he is a careerist who only does things to advance his political ambition.  Waiting until he wins the Peace Prize to declare allows Gore to portray himself as a man who had happily retired from politics but was called back to service by the plight of the world.  He would then appear as a man who was running for a cause rather than for himself.

Waiting until the Peace Prize is declared does give Gore a very brief period of time to campaign. After all, three months is not much when you consider that Hilary Clinton declared her candidacy almost a full year before the Iowa Caucus.  In truth, however, Al Gore does not need to campaign that much.  There are a number of reasons that even with such a late declaration, he would still be a strong candidate:

• The Nobel announcement combined with a presidential campaign would generate a tremendous amount of press; the newspapers and television networks would be filled with stories on Al Gore, shutting out other candidates. 

• Al Gore has great name-recognition and he has remained in the public eye with an Oscar-winning movie An Inconvenient Truth, a new best-seller The Assault on Reason, and the LiveEarth concert.  Winning the Peace Prize would increase his place in the public consciousness tremendously.

• Though Hillary Clinton is herself a formidable lady, her edge over Barak Obama and Jonathan Edwards comes largely from her greater experience in politics and from a Democratic nostalgia for the Clinton years.  Her advantage evaporates against Al Gore who served 8 years in Congress, 8 years in the Senate, and 8 years as Bill Clinton’s Vice-President. 

• The extended primary campaign seems to be hurting the candidates because they are being dragged through the mud for longer.  Initially strong Republican candidates John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney are being topped in the polls by Fred Thompson, a late-comer who was mostly unknown a few months ago. 

• Many Democrats are upset with the Democratic Majority in Congress which has gone along with most of President Bush’s anti-terror policies.  This anger hurts current Senators Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama, and Hillary is particularly weak against Al Gore with Democratic Primary voters because of her vote in favor of the Iraq War in October of 2002. 

• Finally, every single Democrat in the country believes that Al Gore is the actual President and that George Bush is a usurper whose brother in Florida and friends on the Supreme Court stole the election.

All of these factors combine to make a Gore victory in the primary highly likely if he declares upon receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.

An awful lot can happen between now and January.  Al Gore may yet snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as he did in 2000.  However, the possibility of the Nobel Peace Prize effecting the election is definitely present.  You should not count Al Gore out of the race just yet.