Comments on: Not “Peak Oil”, But Lots More Oil http://www.intellectualconservative.com/2007/10/25/not-%e2%80%9cpeak-oil%e2%80%9d-but-lots-more-oil/ Conservative and Libertarian Intellectual Philosophy and Politics Thu, 18 Mar 2010 06:31:37 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: tony http://www.intellectualconservative.com/2007/10/25/not-%e2%80%9cpeak-oil%e2%80%9d-but-lots-more-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-59947 tony Thu, 25 Oct 2007 23:57:54 +0000 http://www.intellectualconservative.com/2007/10/31/not-%e2%80%9cpeak-oil%e2%80%9d-but-lots-more-oil/#comment-59947 Duncan Clarke tends to use more words than numbers in his book. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil uses numbers and revises its forecasts as more data is released including actual production data and discovery data. Colin Campbell, of ASPO Ireland, publishes a monthly newsletter, http://www.aspo-ireland.org/index.cfm/page/newsletter which forecasts that the world has about 1.19 trillion barrels of crude oil/condensate left to produce, and has already produced just over 1 trillion barrels. Campbell estimates that peak oil will occur in 2010 as stated in his October 2007 newsletter. These two forecasts, also completed in October 2007, show that the world peaked in 2006. The Energy Watch Group, in Germany, forecasts that the peak in crude oil/lease condensate/natural gas plant liquids occurred in 2006. http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Reports.24+M5d637b1e38d.0.html This forecast, by The Oil Drum, also shows that peak oil (including ethanol) occurred in 2006 and will stay on a production plateau until mid 2009 http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3064 There is more oil in the ground and more oil to be found - maybe 100 billion, 200 billion - that's not the issue. The average time from discovery of a new oil field to production is now about 6 years. The Oil Drum forecast uses a bottom up project based forecast to 2012 and shows production falling. Production rates are key here, not oil in the ground. Peak oil has probably passed and the world needs to be proactive about reducing demand, otherwise rich countries such as the USA will continue bidding prices upwards so that, as usual, poor countries will suffer the mostand will be unable to purchase fuel to support food production. The last time I looked, West Texas Intermediate was about $US92/barrel. By the way, this price is determined mainly by oil demand production, not oil in the ground or future oil discoveries. Duncan Clarke tends to use more words than numbers in his book. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil uses numbers and revises its forecasts as more data is released including actual production data and discovery data. Colin Campbell, of ASPO Ireland, publishes a monthly newsletter, http://www.aspo-ireland.org/index.cfm/page/newsletter which forecasts that the world has about 1.19 trillion barrels of crude oil/condensate left to produce, and has already produced just over 1 trillion barrels. Campbell estimates that peak oil will occur in 2010 as stated in his October 2007 newsletter.

These two forecasts, also completed in October 2007, show that the world peaked in 2006. The Energy Watch Group, in Germany, forecasts that the peak in crude oil/lease condensate/natural gas plant liquids occurred in 2006. http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Reports.24+M5d637b1e38d.0.html
This forecast, by The Oil Drum, also shows that peak oil (including ethanol) occurred in 2006 and will stay on a production plateau until mid 2009
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3064

There is more oil in the ground and more oil to be found – maybe 100 billion, 200 billion – that's not the issue. The average time from discovery of a new oil field to production is now about 6 years. The Oil Drum forecast uses a bottom up project based forecast to 2012 and shows production falling. Production rates are key here, not oil in the ground. Peak oil has probably passed and the world needs to be proactive about reducing demand, otherwise rich countries such as the USA will continue bidding prices upwards so that, as usual, poor countries will suffer the mostand will be unable to purchase fuel to support food production. The last time I looked, West Texas Intermediate was about $US92/barrel. By the way, this price is determined mainly by oil demand production, not oil in the ground or future oil discoveries.

]]> By: Raymond Ingles http://www.intellectualconservative.com/2007/10/25/not-%e2%80%9cpeak-oil%e2%80%9d-but-lots-more-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-59868 Raymond Ingles Thu, 25 Oct 2007 16:09:46 +0000 http://www.intellectualconservative.com/2007/10/31/not-%e2%80%9cpeak-oil%e2%80%9d-but-lots-more-oil/#comment-59868 Yes, the United States is addicted to oil. Even if the upper limits of the estimates were correct, and 85 billion barrels of oil are technically recoverable from American reserves (though the cost per barrel, and the rate at which it can be recovered, is not specified here)... that would last us only 12 years at the current rate of usage. I rather hope the United States continues for longer than that. We need energy, yes. But we can get energy in other ways that don't make us critically dependent on a resource that has a price and supply controlled, or at least strongly influenced, by powers not friendly to our interests. Nuclear power (and nuclear rockets enabling cheap solar power satellites) could drastically cut our need for oil - thus dropping the price, and hitting the "religious fanatics, dictators, and communist thugs" exactly where it hurts them the most. We could become an energy <i>exporter</i> in time, further reducing worldwide demand for oil, driving down the price still further. We'll still need oil to make plastics, and chemical fuels still beat batteries hands down for energy density. But reducing our dependence on oil has a huge number of advantages and essentially no disadvantages. Yes, the United States is addicted to oil. Even if the upper limits of the estimates were correct, and 85 billion barrels of oil are technically recoverable from American reserves (though the cost per barrel, and the rate at which it can be recovered, is not specified here)… that would last us only 12 years at the current rate of usage. I rather hope the United States continues for longer than that.

We need energy, yes. But we can get energy in other ways that don't make us critically dependent on a resource that has a price and supply controlled, or at least strongly influenced, by powers not friendly to our interests. Nuclear power (and nuclear rockets enabling cheap solar power satellites) could drastically cut our need for oil – thus dropping the price, and hitting the "religious fanatics, dictators, and communist thugs" exactly where it hurts them the most. We could become an energy exporter in time, further reducing worldwide demand for oil, driving down the price still further.

We'll still need oil to make plastics, and chemical fuels still beat batteries hands down for energy density. But reducing our dependence on oil has a huge number of advantages and essentially no disadvantages.

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