Predicting the 2008 Republican Presidential Primary Nominee

 by Rachel Alexander  

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Which is the more accurate predictor of who will win the presidential primary, the early primaries or the nationwide polls? This year's Republican race has starkly different poll results in both.

With less than two days to go until the Iowa caucuses, Republican presidential candidates Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are leading polls in the early primary states, but Giuliani is still ahead in nationwide polls. How much do the early primary states contribute to determining who eventually wins the nomination? Giuliani has ignored the earliest primary states Iowa and New Hampshire. Wins in early primary states can create momentum in other states. Howard Dean lost both Iowa and New Hampshire in 2004 which effectively ended his run at that point, although Dean was never a strong candidate. However, Bill Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and still went on to win the Democrat Party's nomination for president in 1992.

It has been noted that eventual winners are more likely to win New Hampshire than Iowa, and the majority of winners have won one or both states. Former governor John Sununu said in 1988, "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents."

Huckabee is leading in Iowa polls, slightly ahead of Romney by .4 points. Of seven recent polls taken in Iowa, Huckabee is leading in four and Romney is leading in three. Both are double digits ahead of the other candidates.

Romney is ahead in New Hampshire. The New Hampshire primary is January 8, and Romney is leading the pack by an average of 2.8 points. Of the four most recent polls there, Romney is leading in two, McCain is leading in one, and they're tied in a fourth. Although McCain won the state in 2000, that was eight years ago; his star has faded, and Romney is popular there as governor of a neighboring New England state. In the past, candidates from states adjacent to Iowa have done well in the Iowa caucuses, so it is likely this effect will also carry over to New Hampshire. McCain has struggled to distinguish himself from the other candidates this past year. His waffling on illegal immigration and other issues has left Republicans confused. Even his support for the Iraq war was hedged until recently.

Michigan's primary is next on January 15. Romney is up by one point, leading in two of the most recent four polls. Huckabee and McCain are leading in the other two polls. Romney's father is a former governor of Michigan, so he should take that state.

South Carolina's Republican primary is January 19. Huckabee is ahead by 6.5 points, leading in three out of four polls and tied with Romney in a fourth. Nevada's primary is January 19. Romney and Giuliani are tied, with Giuliani leading in two polls and Romney in a third. Florida's primary is January 29. This is the earliest primary Giuliani is winning in, by 2 points. Of the four most recent polls, he's ahead in three, and Huckabee is ahead in a fourth.

Nationwide, Giuliani has consistently remained ahead on average in the polls, although this past week his lead has slipped to 3.5 points. Of four nationwide polls this week, Giuliani leads in two, McCain leads in one, and Romney is tied with Giuliani in a fourth.

Because of the clear distinction between the Republicans leading in the primary states vs. Giuliani leading in nationwide polls, whoever ultimately wins this nomination will provide some decisive information for future elections regarding where candidates should best expend their efforts. Although I haven't made up my mind yet on which candidate I'm voting for, my money is on Giuliani and the nationwide polls. And if Giuliani wins, I think there's a good chance he picks Huckabee for VP.

Huckabee has failed to garner the conservative Christian share of the Republican vote as much as he could have because he's not fiscally conservative enough. The media likes to label Christians "social conservatives," but when have you heard a social conservative say they are a fiscal liberal? It's almost an oxymoron. The evangelical right is almost as concerned about fiscal issues as they are social issues.

Romney has stayed even in the polls with Huckabee among social conservatives because Romney is promising both social and fiscal conservatism. Although his record as governor hasn't been much of either, he's talking the talk now. The media has tried to make an issue of his Mormon religion, but it hasn't worked, because Romney doesn't come across as an old-fashioned Mormon. Romney didn't impose his religious views on the state of Massachusetts when he was governor, he's said he would not as president, and based on his record as a liberal Republican governor, there's no reason to believe otherwise. As long as he doesn't impose his religion on the rest of the country, and his religious views aren't dangerous, they're not an overriding issue. Considering Mormons share most of the values of mainstream Christians, overall Romney is more likely to support policies that coincide with Christian values than your average non-religious candidate. Furthermore, most Christians would prefer a Mormon like Romney who takes a reasonable approach to professing their faith over a fundamentalist non-Mormon Christian who insists on making lectures against homosexuality the center point of their campaign; something that will alienate voters and is better reserved for other forums.

I predict Giuliani will ultimately get the nomination because his association with 9-11 brings out the same kind of emotions from social conservatives that social conservative values bring out in them. Both types of feelings come from the mom and dad, apple pie and American flag sentiment. The power of emotional patriotic feelings cannot be underestimated. The terrorist threat has never left, and with the ever increasing media coverage on cable and the internet, every terrorist incident around the world is well-covered. Most conservatives see a link between Al Qaeda and Iraq. As long as the U.S. is in Iraq and our troops are being killed, they feel the pressure of terrorism. With terrorism and Iraq as the defining issue of the election, Giuliani has the edge, because no one worries that Giuliani might go soft on terrorism. Huckabee will probably take Iowa, and Romney will take New Hampshire, but Huckabee will likely fade soon afterwards like Howard Dean. Romney will take New Hampshire, but Giuliani will prevail in later primaries like Bill Clinton and go on to win the Republican nomination.

Thanks to realclearpolitics.com for much of this information

Politics: General, Elections & Political Parties, Foreign Affairs, National Defense, Foreign Affairs: Iraq War, Terrorism, War on Terror

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