Ahmadinejad is Right: Iran is Winning the Nuclear Debate

 by Brian Melton  

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The length of the list of warnings issued to Iran at various times by various people borders on the ridiculous.

"In the nuclear issue, the bullying powers have used up all their capabilities but could not break the will of the Iranian nation."
— Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

People never like to say that our enemies are right.  We would much rather lampoon, mock, and/or ignore anyone who disagrees with us (just navigate the blogosphere for awhile).  As fun as that might be, it gets us nowhere in the discovery of practical answers to real problems. A wise man or woman will recognize the truth no matter where it comes from, even the mouth of an opponent. 

That said, I believe that clear-thinking westerners must admit that Ahmadinejad is correct when he says that Iran has won the diplomatic jousting so far over its nuclear program. In fact, he seems to have a clearer grasp of the situation than most of his opponents. His recent statements are nothing more than a frank observation of the weak efforts of the international community to deal with his nation’s ambitions.

While I certainly understand that there may be much more going on behind the scenes than I can possibly know about, it seems that Iran has publically proven that it can do what it wants, when it wants, and that it doesn’t care at all about anything the international community does. Iran has repeatedly ignored various “ultimatums” with no apparent consequences whatsoever. The length of the list of warnings issued to Iran at various times by various people borders on the ridiculous: In 2003, the U.N. sent one; Tony Blair issued two in 2004 and 2005; Jacques Chirac added one of his own in 2005; the U.N. tried again in 2006 and 2007; only last week, Iran rejected another.  While not all of these instances are true “ultimatums” in the diplomatic sense, they are perceived that way by the Iranians, by the press, and by the public.

In spite of the litany of demands the U.N. and various nations have made, Iran has worked steadily to increase its nuclear program. Far from any sort of “freeze” in their operations, they have more than doubled their capacity in the last few years. Iran publically announced that it would expand its program in 2006 and by the summer of 2007 had another 3,000 centrifuges in place (though possibly not working).  Russia recently delivered 82 tons of reactor fuel to Iran, and Iran’s first working nuclear plant will come on-line this summer.

One need not be the greatest of statesmen to peruse the above and realize who looks the fool in this situation. It certainly isn’t the allegedly “isolated,” “rogue” nation. 

Currently, U.N. and international policies seem specifically designed to encourage this kind of thinking in Iran and, through Iran’s example, other up and coming dictatorships.

• The international community hasn’t established any kind of serious track record for deterring dedicated nuclear research, or even the pursuit of weapons.  Since the initial wave of proliferation ended in the 1960s, the U.N. has allowed at least four determined states to develop their own nuclear arsenals: Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.  Prior to Israel’s attack on Syria’s reactor, not a finger had been lifted against it either. Ahmadinejad has no historical reason to believe that the U.N. or the West will act to prevent his own committed pursuit.
• As the “ultimatums” above illustrate, it should be clear that the neither the U.N. nor the various individual world powers (Israel likely excepted) have any intention of actually doing anything about the situation.  If they did, they would have taken more decisive action by this point.  Regardless of whether they act, the indulgence they’ve thus far shown Iran only encourages the idea that they are at the best not interested and worst terrified of a military conflict.  This supports an attitude similar to the one Hitler held just before the invasion of Poland.
• A little U.S. saber rattling aside, like a pampering parent, the international community couches its only tangible responses to the situation in positive terms. Iran is defying the U.N., the U.S. and the E.U., and in response the various nations are putting together “incentive packages” that are supposed to be the carrot to go with the proverbial stick. Unfortunately, since the stick appears to be little more than a wet noodle, all we have in practical terms is the carrot.
• The “United” Nations are anything but united on Iran.  Countries such as Russia and China have demonstrated a clear willingness to manipulate the situation — most likely as a way of causing trouble for the United States. Their limited public support of Iran has prevented the U.N. from actually doing its job and intervening to prevent a crisis. This means that a single country like Iran has the ability simply to do as it pleases.

What results from this mess?  Far from sending a strong and committed message to Iran and Ahmadinejad, it demonstrates that Iran has no particularly compelling need to pay any attention to what the West or the U.N. says. Due to the fractured international front, if Iran can make-do without some of the various luxuries or technology precluded by the few sanctions that have been passed (or, even better, if they can smuggle them in), they can pursue any type of weapon or program they want.  If nothing else, the ever-present suggestion of “incentives” encourages Iran to push further ahead as a form of diplomatic blackmail.  After all, if they can force the West to give them a good deal by pursuing an embryonic nuclear program, what might they get for giving up an advanced one?

This sends the worst possible message to any petty tyrants who happen to be paying attention.  It says that the international community isn’t very serious about preventing nuclear proliferation, and in fact will reimburse you handsomely for any programs that you start. It demonstrates that the best and quickest way to being treated as an equal by the great nations is to become a nuclear threat.  Far from promoting peace, this creates an atmosphere in which nuclear tinkering is actually encouraged.  Like a spoiled child, countries like Iran are taught that the best way to get what you want is to misbehave: the louder and bigger the tantrum, the better. 

The “powers” have beaten their collective heads against the diplomatic wall with Iran for at least five years now.  All they have succeeded in doing is strengthening Ahmadinejad’s hand and creating an international environment that virtually insures that even if a crisis with Iran is averted, another will quickly spring up elsewhere.  And so, I’m very sorry to say that Ahmadinejad is right, at least as far as the international community goes. Israel might be another question entirely.

Foreign Affairs, National Defense

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