Aaron Goldstein kicks off baseball season with his annual predictions. First up is the American League East, where the Red Sox will beat out the Tampa Rays.
In 2006, I was the subject of derision when I predicted the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would win that year's World Series (http://raysindex.blogspot.com/2006/04/aaron-goldstein-has-lost-it.html.) Much of it was deserved as the team had the worst record in Major League Baseball that season, losing 101 games.
Although I did not predict the success of the team now known as the Tampa Bay Rays in winning the AL championship and reaching the World Series in 2008, there were some who praised me for seeing a promise of things to come two years earlier.
Who will be the Tampa Bay Rays of 2009? How about the Kansas City Royals, who have not made a post-season appearance since winning the 1985 World Series? Or the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have not enjoyed a winning season since 1992? Or will the San Francisco Giants win their first World Series since moving to the Bay Area more than half a century ago? With that, here are my predictions for the 2009 season.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL East
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays#
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
# – denotes AL Wild Card winner
The Boston Red Sox are simply the class of not only the American League East but the entire American League. Terry Francona enters his sixth season as Boston Red Sox manager and the team has never looked better. The rotation of Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester and the ageless Tim Wakefield is the envy of baseball. Competing for the number five spot are Clay Buchholz and ex-Dodger Brad Penny. If neither Buchholz nor Penny pan out the Sox can turn to future Hall of Famer John Smoltz. When a team can utilize a John Smoltz as a Plan B it is rich in pitching.
Their bullpen is equally deep led by closer Jonathan Papelbon. Returning with Papelbon are Justin Masterson, Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen. Joining them is Takashi Saito, the former closer for the Dodgers, and Ramon Ramirez, who was the set up man for Kansas City Royals closer Joaquim Soria in 2008.
With respect to position players the Red Sox have American League MVP Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. Jason Bay made Red Sox fans forget about Manny Ramirez. While Jason Varitek's bat has slowed his presence behind the plate is invaluable for the Red Sox pitching staff. Jed Lowrie emerged last season as a solid, if unspectacular shortstop. Jacoby Ellsbury led the AL in stolen bases last season with 50.
If the Sox do have question marks it is with the injury-prone J.D. Drew, who was much improved in 2008, and Mike Lowell, whose hip injury might limit his time at third base in 2009. However, the Sox have the luxury of moving players like Youkilis, Lowry and Mark Kotsay, not to mention the gutsy ex-Tampa Bay Ray Rocco Baldelli, to work around Lowell's absences.
But make no mistake, the Tampa Bay Rays are no fluke. The Rays defeated the Red Sox in the ALCS in seven games and will take them to their limit. Their starting rotation is every bit as good as the Red Sox. Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Andy Sonnanstine and Matt Garza struck fear in the hearts of American League batters. The addition of David Price will not prove a respite either.
The Rays bullpen is also very good with the likes of Troy Percival, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler. In the off season, the Rays added Brian Shouse and Joe Nelson. However, it is not clear if injury-prone Percival is healthy enough to be the closer in 2009, nor it is clear that any of the aforementioned pitchers are closer material. Perhaps ex-Cardinals closer Jason Isringhausen could fill the breach although he has had as many injury problems as Percival.
The Rays' offense proved to be a steamroller with the likes of veteran Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and AL Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria. Akinori Iwamura made a seamless transition to second base to accommodate Longoria at third. Josh Bartlett is dependable at short. B.J. Upton has not yet reached his full potential. Willy Aybar and Gabe Gross were valuable assets off the bench especially when both Longoria and Crawford were injured late last season. Matt Joyce, acquired from the Detroit Tigers in the Edwin Jackson trade, should get some playing time in light of Fernando Perez's wrist injury which kept him out for much of the 2009 season. I would be remiss if I did not mention the addition of longtime Phillie and former World Series rival Pat Burrell. The Rays will be formidable enough to reach the post-season for a second straight year. Rays manager Joe Maddon will find a way to make 9=8.
As Dave Trembley enters his second full season as manager of the Baltimore Orioles he is well aware the team has not enjoyed a winning season since 1997. I do not believe they will have one in 2009 but they will come very close. Their starting rotation isn't top of the line but could prove to be competitive. Jeremy Guthrie is a much better pitcher than his 10-12 record in 2008 would indicate. Guthrie is joined by two lefties, ex-Florida Marlin Mark Hendrickson and ex-Chicago Cub Rich Hill, as well as Japanese import Koji Uehara. The fifth spot in the rotation is wide open as Danys Baez proved ill-suited to starting pitching. Perhaps former Red Sox prospect David Pauley will get a look.
George Sherrill was a pleasant surprise as the Orioles closer, saving 31 games last season. Sherrill could use some middle relief help as veteran Jamie Walker was ineffective last season. Dennis Sarfate had his moments but the O's got very little contribution from Baez and former Orioles closer Chris Ray, who did not pitch in 2008 due to Tommy John surgery.
The Orioles have signed Nick Markakis to a long-term contract and the addition of veteran Ty Wigginton is welcome news. Brian Roberts returns at second base and Cesar Izturis is an improvement at shortstop. Aubrey Huff is a solid designated hitter but will Melvin Mora be able to replicate his 100+ RBI season in 2009? Will 2009 be the season that Adam Jones and ex-Cub Felix Pie blossom in the outfield? Ex-Cincinnati Red Ryan Freel is sure to get his uniform dirty and become a quick fan favorite.
But the player generating the most excitement in the Orioles organization is catcher Matt Wieters. He probably won't be on the opening day roster but expect him to play a big role in the Orioles offense. He might be to the Orioles what Evan Longoria was to the Rays last season. Besides, the Orioles need more than Gregg Zaun behind the plate. Although Zaun is a gritty player the ex-Toronto Blue Jay is not an everyday catcher.
Speaking of the Toronto Blue Jays, the team went 51-37 after firing John Gibbons (as I predicted they would in 2008) and replacing him with two-time World Series winning skipper Cito Gaston on June 20, 2008 (which I did not predict). However, the Jays have a tall task in 2009.
After Roy Halladay their starting rotation is anyone's guess. A.J. Burnett is wearing Yankee pinstripes and Shawn Marcum underwent Tommy John surgery and is likely to miss the entire 2009 season. Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch had their moments but they are going through growing pains. Ricky Romero and David Purcey will likely be given a shot in the starting rotation. Casey Janssen, who missed all of 2008 with a torn labrum, is also an option. He would most certainly be put into the rotation if the Jays were to trade Halladay in mid-season.
The Jays do have a better than average bullpen. Anchored by closer B.J. Ryan, Jesse Carlson, Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs, Jason Frasor and Brandon League pitched out of their league and kept the Blue Jays competitive late in 2008.
However, the Blue Jays' Achilles heel is offense. Vernon Wells was the only Jay who hit 20 homeruns in 2008. What is amazing there is that Wells missed a third of the season due to wrist and hamstring injuries. Alex Rios' power numbers slumped in 2008 after he hit 24 homeruns in 2007. Adam Lind can bop the ball but hasn't done it consistently. Lyle Overbay and Jose Bautista have decent power but aren't consistent run producers. Scott Rolen was a disappointment in 2008. Aaron Hill, Joe Inglett and Marco Scutaro are assets in the infield but they do not have power. The Jays need power. They could have had Adam Dunn but Jays General Manager J.P. Ricciardi bad mouthed his skills. If the Jays offense continues to be anemic and Dunn hits 40 homeruns with the Washington Nationals then Ricciardi might rue his comments.
But the Blue Jays won't have the buyers' remorse the New York Yankees will have. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, I am picking the Bronx Bombers to inaugurate the new Yankee Stadium with a last place finish. Yes, the Yankees spent nearly half a billion dollars on C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira. But like the Obama Administration they are throwing good money after bad.
Sabathia's low-key personality is better suited to Milwaukee or the West Coast than to the intense scrutiny of New York. Can you say Randy Johnson? Burnett did win a career high 18 games with the Blue Jays in 2008 but prior to last season he had never won more than 12 games in a season. Burnett has been on the disabled list a dozen times in his career. Joba Chamberlain is better suited for the bullpen and Andy Pettitte isn't the pitcher he was half a decade ago. It is also unclear if Chien-Ming Wang is fully recovered from his foot injury sustained during interleague play in 2008.
There's not much protecting Mariano Rivera in the bullpen. Brian Bruney, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez and Damaso Marte make for a so-so corps of relievers. Jonathan Albaladejo might be what stands between Rivera and the 9th inning this season.
Aside from the steroids revelations, Alex Rodriguez will miss the first month of the season due to arthroscopic hip surgery. He will also need to undergo a more intensive procedure following the 2009 season. Cody Ransom is in the unenviable position of opening up the new Yankee Stadium at the hot corner.
The roster is also aging. In addition to Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon and Mariano Rivera are all over 35. Both Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui turn 35 in June. Given this demographic dynamic, why are the Yankees still looking to trade 24-year-old Melky Cabrera? In the off season the Yankees were prepared to send him to the Milwaukee Brewers for 36-year-old Mike Cameron but Milwaukee ultimately opted to re-sign Cameron. But it seems Cabrera is expendable as Brett Gardner has won the job as everyday centerfielder. With legends like DiMaggio, Mantle and Bernie Williams as predecessors, Gardner has very big shoes to fill. He could fill them but he might not grow into the position this season. I would be remiss if I didn't state that simply flipping Damon and Jeter in the batting order seems like little more than rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
The Yankees decline has only just begun. Last year, the team failed to make the post-season after 13 consecutive appearances under Joe Torre. Joe Girardi is under a lot of pressure. It is not all his fault. The Yankees' minor league system that produced Jeter, Rivera, Posada and Bernie Williams is ancient history. The Yankees instead chose to spend money to mask a deep organizational deficit which will take years to rebuild. With that said Hal Steinbrenner, like his father George, expects results today. If the Yankees aren't within a game of first place by mid-June look for Girardi to be fired and replaced possibly by Luis Sojo, a former Yankee who is currently managing their Class A minor league affiliate in Tampa.
Tomorrow: the AL Central.
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