The Twins should capture the AL Central and the Kansas City Royals will return to respectability.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers

No one expected the Minnesota Twins to contend in 2008 with the loss of three starting pitchers in Johan Santana, Carlos Silva and Matt Garza and, Gold Glove centerfielder Torii Hunter. Yet the Twins came within a one-game playoff of winning the AL Central in 2008.

The Twins have arguably the most underrated starting rotation in MLB with Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey and Glenn Perkins. Throw a healthy Francisco Liriano in the mix and you have a rotation that could dominate the division for the next five years.  All five starters are in their 20s and have not yet reached their peak. 

The Twins also arguably have the most underrated bullpen in MLB. Joe Nathan might be the most consistent closer in the bigs, saving 35 or more games every season since 2004.  Even Yankees great Mariano Rivera can't make that claim.  While middle reliever Pat Neshek will have to sit out the 2009 season due to Tommy John surgery, the middle relief corps of Jesse Crain, Craig Breslow, Boof Bonser and Matt Guerrier do the job. 

The big unknown here though is the fate of Twins catcher Joe Mauer, who has severe lower back problems. If Mauer is not ready for the start of the season they will have to rely on the triumvirate of veteran Mike Redmond and rookies Drew Butera and Jose Morales. If they do not pan out and Mauer can't answer the bell then the Twins will be in the market for a catcher.  Perhaps Kelly Shoppach of the Cleveland Indians could be a short term solution?

Even if Mauer is down for the count the Twins can still rely on 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau.  Surrounding Morneau is a nucleus of talented young players like Alexi Casilla, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, all of whom are coming into their own.  The inclusion of former White Sox third baseman Joe Crede will help too. However, if any player personifies the Twins it is shortstop Nick Punto. He doesn't have a lot of size or power but he plays spectacular defense and is capable of playing several different positions. Whether the score is 1-0 or 10-0, Punto plays all out. Don't be surprised if Punto becomes a major league manager one day. If he does it will be because he learned under Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, who is one of baseball's best teachers of fundamentals.  It is these fundamentals that earn the Twins the AL Central Division title in 2009.

The Kansas City Royals have not made the post-season since winning the World Series in 1985. I do not believe the Royals will do so in 2009 but I think Royals fans will have a lot to cheer about this season. Trey Hillman enters his second season as Royals manager with a much better team on the field.

The Royals starting rotation is anchored by veteran Gil Meche and Zach Greinke, who last season began living up to his potential with 13 wins. Greinke was rewarded with a four-year contract extension. The rest of the rotation is rounded out by Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies.  While they have been inconsistent they are still in their 20s and have time on their side.  If only one of them blossoms this year it would be a significant boon for the Royals.

Joaqim Soria quietly saved 41 games for the Royals in 2008. The bullpen surrounding Soria is good.  While Soria will miss the departed Ramon Ramirez he can still rely on the likes of Ron Mahay as well as the newly acquired Kyle Farnsworth, Horacio Ramirez and Robinson Tejeda.  Joel Peralta had a disappointing 2008 after a sterling season in 2007.

Mike Aviles was a revelation at shortstop last season, supplanting Tony Pena, Jr.  Alex Gordon will continue to improve at third base and the acquisition of power hitting first baseman Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins will boost their offense.  It will be interesting to see how Mark Teahen works out at second base. Even if he isn't the second coming of Frank White it will be difficult to keep Teahen's bat out of the lineup.  Miguel Olivo and John Buck will continue to platoon behind the plate.

Former Red Sox outfielder Coco Crisp will patrol center field for the Royals in 2009.  Joining him in the outfield are veterans Jose Guillen and David DeJesus. The Royals outfield might be the most underrated in the majors. Will Mitch Maier be to the Royals in 2009 what Aviles was to them in 2008?

This is the season where the Royals become contenders.  They might be another year away from post-season play but the Royals will be noticed in 2009. 

After nearly winning the AL pennant in 2007, the Cleveland Indians were a disappointment for most of 2008. Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner had poor campaigns. The Tribe gave up by mid-season, having traded away players like C.C. Sabathia and Casey Blake.

One of the few Indians who had a better 2008 than 2007 was Cliff Lee. His 23 wins earned him the AL Cy Young Award.  Lee anchors a rotation that includes Fausto Carmona, Anthony Reyes, Scott Lewis and ex-Yankee Carl Pavano. After winning 19 games in 2007, Carmona struggled mightily in 2008 with an 8-7 record and 5.44 ERA, and walked more batters than he struck out. Which Fausto Carmona will we see in 2009? Reyes is a reclamation project as is Pavano, who won a grand total of 9 games in a Yankees uniform since 2005.

The Indians signed long-time Chicago Cub Kerry Wood to be their closer.  However, given Wood's long history with injuries the Tribe would be wise to keep Jensen Lewis close at hand. Rafael Perez is a dependable lefty out of the bullpen and the addition of former Met Joe Smith should be of some help, but Rafael Betancourt and Masahide Kobayashi will have to pitch better in 2009.

When Victor Martinez faltered behind the plate Kelly Shoppach stepped into the breach.  Somehow I don't think this is a viable platoon. One option would be to move Martinez to first base but Ryan Garko is ensconced there. One of these guys won't be in an Indians uniform and if it's Shoppach who goes it will be a big mistake on their part. 

The infield of Garko, Astrubal Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta and former Cub Mark DeRosa is more than respectable. DeRosa will play third base in 2009 but can play other positions as well. Outside of Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore was the Indians' best player in 2008.  He anchors an outfield that includes Ben Francisco, Shin-Soo Choo and David Dellucci although rookie Trevor Crowe might eat into Dellucci's playing time especially with Dellucci beginning the season on the DL with a bad left calf. 

The Indians will be better in 2009 but only marginally so. But marginally better isn't what the Indians are aiming for so manager Eric Wedge could be in trouble if the team isn't significantly better this season.

The Chicago White Sox won the AL Central Division in 2008.  Manager Ozzie Guillen might not be so happy this year even if the Chisox are President Obama's favorite team. 

The team is aging.  Granted it is not as acute as with the New York Yankees but nearly half the roster is over 30.  Don't be surprised if there is a significantly different team at U.S. Cellular Field by this time in 2010.

This isn't to say that there aren't veterans who won't make a contribution. Lefty Mark Buehrle is a workhorse who will continue to log both innings and victories. But Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon are nearing the end of the rope. Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks are two of the better young starting pitchers in the American League, however.  The bullpen is very good with closer Bobby Jenks and set up men like Scott Linebrink and Matt Thornton. You never know what you are going to get with the likes of Octavio Dotel but Lance Broadway and D.J. Carrasco are other viable options. Love him or hate him, A.J. Pierzynski is one of the better backstops in the AL.

The White Sox, however, have significant gaps in the infield.  Paul Konerko is on a steep decline. Veteran Wilson Betemit and rookie Brandon Allen will get some playing time at first but whether they are long term solutions remains to be seen. Alexei Ramirez was one of the best rookies in the AL and in a couple of seasons the team will be built around the young second baseman. However, with the departure of both Orlando Cabrera and Joe Crede there is tremendous uncertainty on the left side of the infield. Brent Lillibridge will get a shot at short and even if he is good can he be expected to have Cabrera's on the field leadership? Josh Fields will likely get the nod but Dayan Viciedo will also get a look as well if Fields isn't smooth. 

As for the outfield, can Carlos Quentin repeat his breakout season of 2008?  Will he stay healthy? Will Jermaine Dye continue to be productive?  DeWayne Wise can get to the ball but neither Brian Anderson nor Jerry Owens has made Chisox fans forget about Aaron Rowand. Just don't be surprised if you see a lot of headlines featuring Guillen berating various players more so this season than in seasons past. 

The Detroit Tigers had the most disappointing season in MLB in 2008. Many expected them to return to the World Series especially with the acquisition of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Florida Marlins. While Cabrera put up excellent numbers Willis seemed lost and found himself demoted to their Single-A affiliate in Lakeland, Florida.  It was a very humbling experience for a one-time World Series champion as it was for manager Jim Leyland and the entire team.

There is every reason to believe their bad fortune will continue in 2009. Their starting rotation is quite uncertain. Justin Verlander had a poor season and Jeremy Bonderman had season-ending shoulder surgery.  Aside from Willis' woes, Nate Robertson appears equally lost. The only silver lining was the emergence of Armando Galarraga. The Tigers are hoping Rick Porcello will be the 2009 version of Galarraga. Ex-Tampa Bay Ray Edwin Jackson and Zach Miner should get opportunities to start for the Tigers in 2009.

The bullpen is equally uncertain. Todd Jones has retired and it is clear that Fernando Rodney is a set up man and not a closer. Joel Zumaya has simply not been healthy since his spectacular success of 2006. The Tigers did sign ex-Diamondback Brandon Lyon to be their closer but he has spent most of his career as a set up man. Look for ex-Ranger Gerald Laird and Matt Treanor to platoon behind the plate.

The Tigers still have a decent offensive team. Miguel Cabrera is emerging as a solid first baseman and will continue to put up prodigious power numbers. Although Cabrera looked trim in the 2009 World Baseball Classic for Team Venezuela his weight has been an issue throughout his career. Placido Polanco is solid at second and former Twin Adam Everett is also solid at short but won't provide much at the plate. Brandon Inge is adequate at third. 

Curtis Granderson provides excellent speed and range in center field and Magglio Ordonez will remain a major contributor in right field. Marcus Thames has good pop in his bat but is streaky. Ryan Raburn, Brent Clevlen, Jeff Larish and Clete Thomas will be competing for playing time in 2009 although their acquisition of Josh Anderson from the Atlanta Braves has put their future with the big league club in doubt. The release of Gary Sheffield opens an additional roster spot.  Carlos Guillen should see the majority of the time as the team's designated hitter. 

I don't expect the Tigers to be as woeful as the auto industry or the Detroit Lions but I don't expect the Tigers to do much to raise morale in Michigan this year.  Jim Leyland's contract runs out at the end of this season and I do not expect him to manage the Tigers in 2010.

Tomorrow: the AL West.