The Phillies are the class of the NL East, while the high-priced New York Mets will disappoint.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
In 2008, the Philadelphia Phillies won their first World Series since 1980. Despite a busy off season for the Mets, Charley Manuel's club is still the team to beat in the NL East.
The Phillies do have concern about tightness in the left elbow of NLCS and World Series MVP Cole Hamels, but he should be able to make their Opening Day start against the Atlanta Braves on April 5th. If Hamels can't answer the bell then Brett Myers will step in. The ageless Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton are also in the rotation. The fifth spot is between young J.A. Happ and veteran Chan Ho Park.
No one is expecting Brad Lidge to have another perfect season as the Phillies closer. But he leads an exceptional bullpen that includes Clay Condrey, Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson and Scott Eyre. Ex-Giant lefty Jack Taschner will fill in for J.C. Romero, who is out 50 games after testing positive for a performance enhancing substance. Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste are a good platoon behind the plate.
The Phillies infield might be the best with Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. It is interesting to note that Rollins had a down season after winning the NL MVP in 2007. But it didn't prevent them from going all the way. Pedro Feliz and Greg Dobbs are a solid platoon at third base.
Shane Victorino made the departure of Aaron Rowand negligible. Ex-Mariner Raul Ibanez should make up for the departure of Pat Burrell. Jayson Werth will start the year in right field but might end up as trade bait for pitching later in the season if John Mayberry, Jr. is called up and hits like his father. But otherwise look for Philly to win their third consecutive NL East title.
The Florida Marlins should not be taken lightly. The team went a respectable 84-77 in 2008. It was a 13-game improvement over 2007 and as Fredi Gonzalez enters his third season as Marlins' skipper with many of the same players they had a year ago, they will contend in the NL East.
15-game winner Ricky Nolasco might be the best kept secret in the NL. Who knows, he could be this year's Tim Lincecum. He is joined in the rotation by Josh Johnson, Andrew Miller, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez. Not exactly household names but they could be. Sergio Mitre could be a factor later in the season although he will serve a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance.
Matt Lindstrom has a great future as the Marlins closer and has strong set-up men in Logan Kensing and lefty Renyel Pinto. John Baker is the number one catcher but Ronny Paulino should get his share of playing time as well.
The Marlins' infield is as good as the Phillies. Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu strike as much fear in the hearts of NL pitchers as do Howard, Utley and Rollins, while veteran Wes Helms and young Gabby Sanchez platoon at first. Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross and Cameron Maybin have the tools to become the best outfield in the NL.
The New York Mets ended both the 2007 and 2008 seasons in disaster, falling precipitously out of the post-season picture. Despite significant off-season moves I am not convinced it will pay off for manager Jerry Manuel.
The Mets have a magnificent ace in Johan Santana. He would have been a 20-game winner if not for the Mets bullpen (more on that in a moment). The rest of the rotation is a big question mark. John Maine is coming off rotator cuff surgery and you never know what you are going to get from Oliver Perez or Mike Pelfrey from start to start. Livan Hernandez will continue to log innings as a number five starter.
Their bullpen should be better than it was last year. Their big off-season acquisition was the signing of former Angel Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez to a three-year contract. K-Rod saved a major league record 62 saves for the Angels in 2008. It would be a lot to ask for him to save that many in 2009 but it is what Mets fans are expecting. If K-Rod should falter then ex-Mariners closer J.J. Putz could step into the breach. But you can be sure if Putz struggles at Citi Field the New York faithful will let him hear it. Sean Green, another former Mariner, joins holdover Pedro Feliciano in the bullpen. Raul Castro and Brian Schneider are adequate behind the plate.
Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes and David Wright are back for another season as is veteran second baseman Luis Castillo. Delgado had a very bad first half and a very good second half last season. The Mets need him for the whole season and it is not clear that Delgado can deliver. Castillo hasn't been the same player since he left the Minnesota Twins. Former Red Sox infielder Alex Cora takes on the role played by Damion Easley last season.
Carlos Beltran will patrol center field for a fifth season with the Mets. Has Ryan Church sufficiently recovered from his two concussions to play everyday in 2009? If not then Jeremy Reed, Nick Evans and Angel Pagan will have an opportunity to shine. Fernando Tatis and Marlon Anderson are valuable players coming off the bench.
The Mets have the talent but just not the heart. I think the team does require a significant shake up. Beltran's contract is probably too big to trade away. While I would be inclined to shed the team of Delgado and his attitude, his contract expires at the end of this season. If the Mets don't make the post-season or struggle mightily they could trade David Wright for prospects. Wright is signed with the Mets through 2012.
The Washington Nationals have plenty of heart. They just probably aren't going to win many games for Manny Acta in 2009.
Their starting rotation could be described as an experiment. John Lannan, who went 9-15 with the Nationals last season, is their ace. Yes, it's not saying much. Then again he is 24 and has time on his side. The same cannot be said for ex-Orioles Daniel Cabrera and ex-Marlin Scott Olsen. Cabrera has control problems on the field while Olsen has control problems both on and off the field. Shairon Martis, who started four games for the Nationals in 2008, and Jordan Zimmermann, who makes his major league debut in 2009, round out the rotation.
The bullpen looks fairly decent with Joel Hanrahan as the closer and holdovers Saul Rivera, Steven Shell and lefty Mike Hinckley. Ex-Dodger Joe Beimel should also play a big role in the Nationals bullpen this season. Jesus Flores and Wil Nieves will platoon behind the plate.
The Nationals could not sign Mark Teixeira but did sign a genuine slugger in Adam Dunn, who will play first base in 2009. This will limit playing time for veteran Dmitri Young. But perhaps Dunn's presence will help third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who struggled offensively in 2008. Ronnie Belliard and Cristian Guzman return at second and shortstop respectively.
Ex-Marlin Josh Willingham will add some power to the outfield. Lastings Milledge is the everyday centerfielder while Austin Kearns and Elijah Dukes platoon in right field. Willy Mo Pena and Willie Harris are useful off the bench.
The Nationals won't be much better than they were a year ago but they are a competitive club. Just ask the Phillies and Mets. Or for that matter the Atlanta Braves. The Nationals, who lost 102 games in 2008, went 12-6 against the Braves last season.
The Atlanta Braves are not the team that went to the post-season 14 consecutive times any more. It would not surprise me if this is Bobby Cox's last season managing the Atlanta Braves. He has won more than 2,300 games as a major league manager. However, I don't think he'll win many games this season. It would be a shame to end his managerial career this way but I cannot see how he can avoid it.
Tim Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery and will be out for most of 2009. The Braves did sign free agent pitcher Derek Lowe and acquired Javier Vazquez from the Chicago White Sox. However, both pitchers have a history of inconsistency. At 43, Tom Glavine is on his last legs in the majors. Jair Jurrjens did win 13 games last season but Jorge Campillo and Charlie Morton aren't quite ready for prime time. Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami could be of help.
Mike Gonzalez is the closer for now. Rafael Soriano is better suited as a set up man. I would not be surprised if Boone Logan had an opportunity to close this season.
Casey Kotchman might have been the unhappiest man in baseball when he was traded for Mark Teixeira from a sure winner in Anaheim to an also ran in Atlanta. Kotchman struggled after the trade. Kelly Johnson is dependable at second while Yunel Escobar has a bright future at short. Chipper Jones did win a NL batting title in 2008 but his body is fragile and it would be asking a lot for him to play more than 120 games a season. Signing Jones through 2012 is a big mistake. Jeff Francoeur had a disappointing season in 2008 as well after driving in more than 100 runs in 2006 and 2007. Ex-Angel Garrett Anderson and Matt Diaz will platoon in left while Gregor Blanco plays his second full season for the Braves in centerfield.
Ted Turner must be pleased he no longer owns the Braves.
I am a Marlins fan, so I felt I would have to comment on this one. While I do love my Marlins, I was taken aback by your comment that Cantu, Uggla, and Ramirez strike as much fear as Utley, Howard, and Rollins. I cannot agree, even if I feel that Ryan Howard has fallen back down to Earth and is not as feared as he once was. Utley is really, really good, and Hanley isn't nearly as good in key situations. He should improve on that this year, because I do think the Marlins will be in contention for longer.
Nolasco might have been the best kept secret last year, but he's easily the fourth best starter on the Marlins, 3rd if Annibal's shoulder hasn't returned to 100%. Josh Johnson is one of the best pitchers in the game, which makes it more unfortunate that he had to have Tommy John surgery so early in his career. If he pitches as well as he did his rookie season and the end of last season, he could be the Cy Young winner this year in the NL. Volstad was amazing last year as a rookie, and I hope he continues to improve. If Annibal returns to the form that let him one hit the Yankees at Yankee Stadium in his debut and throw a no-hitter against the Diamondbacks, then they will have the best pitching in the majors hands down.
The Marlins had all the offense they needed last year, but the pitching failed them. Early on, the starting pitching was horrendous, but the relief was great. Then, towards the end of the season when all their pitchers came back from injury, the bullpen suffered a monumental collapse. Fredi also made the mistake of sticking with Kevin Gregg as his closer when Matt Lindstrom was already showing signs that he was the man who deserved the job. If they can solidify the bullpen, this team, even with a few offensive subtractions, should be fighting at the top of the NL East.