The Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants are looking strong for 2009.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
The Chicago Cubs are poised to win their third consecutive NL Central Division title. While that might not be enough to get beyond the NLDS it is clear that Lou Piniella's club is the best team in this division.
The starting rotation is sensational with Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden and Ryan Dempster. Sean Marshall will likely be the number five starter in 2009.
The starters will likely not have to pitch longer than six innings with Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Marmol and ex-Marlins closer Kevin Gregg pitching the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. Throw in Neal Cotts, Chad Gaudin and Luis Vizcaino and you've got a deep bullpen. Deep enough to carry Aaron Heilman, who has been ineffective the last two seasons in the Mets bullpen.
Geovany Soto emerged as one of the best catchers in baseball last season with his NL Rookie of the Year campaign. There are all-star caliber players at first and third with Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, respectively. Ryan Theriot is getting better at shortstop. There is some competition at second base between Mike Fontenot and ex-Cardinal Aaron Miles but a little competition won't hurt at a position once occupied by Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg.
Ex-Ranger Milton Bradley joins an outfield of Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome. With the speedy Joey Gathright and the dependable Reed Johnson as your fourth and fifth outfielders, this team can't miss the 2009 post-season, though it will likely be 101 years since last winning the World Series.
As long as Tony LaRussa is manager of the St. Louis Cardinals they cannot be discounted.
However, the Cardinals are counting on Chris Carpenter being healthy. Since winning the World Series in 2006, Carpenter has only pitched a little over 20 innings and hasn't won a game. If Carpenter can't answer the bell then Adam Wainwright has the stuff to be a number one starter. Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer exceeded all expectations in 2008. It will be a lot to ask them to replicate that success in 2009. Joel Pineiro has never regained the form when he won 16 games for the Mariners in 2003 although pitching coach Dave Duncan hasn't given up yet.
LaRussa has tapped rookie Jason Motte to be the closer. If Motte falters the task might fall to Ryan Franklin, a role he briefly held in 2008. The not so strong bullpen is rounded out by Kyle McClellan, ex-Tampa Bay Ray Trever Miller and ex-Twin Denys Reyes. Yadier Molina, however, is one of the best catchers in MLB.
Albert Pujols returns to St. Louis for his ninth big league season. The reigning NL MVP is the centerpiece of the Cardinals lineup. He had off-season elbow surgery so he should be healthy all season. The middle of the infield is strong with Skip Schumaker at second and ex-Padre Khalil Greene at short. Third base is a question mark, however, as Troy Glaus begins the 2009 season on the DL with a bad shoulder. David Freese will be given a shot at the hot corner. But if Freese falters and Glaus doesn't respond to treatment look for them to try to acquire Garrett Atkins from the Colorado Rockies.
Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan and Ryan Ludwick comprise the Cardinals outfield. Does anyone expect Ludwick to hit 37 homeruns again? Probably not but Ludwick will certainly contribute.
The Cardinals are not without holes but LaRussa has a way of plugging holes. It won't be enough to make the post-season but they will give the Cubs a run for their money.
The Cincinnati Reds were a disappointing 74-88 in Dusty Baker's first year as manager although not everyone on the team was a disappointment. If not for Josh Hamilton, the Texas Rangers would have been kicking themselves for parting with Edinson Volquez, who won 17 games for the Reds last season. But you are only as good as your last game. After winning 16 games in 2006 and 2007, Aaron Harang went 6-17 last season. Bronson Arroyo rebounded with 15 wins and Johnny Cueto had flashes of brilliance. The number five spot in the starting rotation is between Micah Owings and Homer Bailey. If Owings loses out he has a very strong bat. They might even have to pull a Rick Ankiel and convert him into an outfielder.
David Weathers and Francisco Cordero are strong in the 8th and 9th innings. The addition of Arthur Rhodes gives the Reds a reliable lefty out of the bullpen. The addition of ex-Orioles catcher Ramon Hernandez will be of help to the pitching staff.
Joey Votto will start his second season as the Reds first baseman after finishing runner up for NL Rookie of the Year. Brandon Phillips' offensive numbers dipped a bit in 2008 but he is a solid second baseman. Alex Gonzalez and Jerry Hairston, Jr. will platoon at short. Edwin Encarnacion isn't the best defensive third baseman but has solid power numbers.
But Jay Bruce is the player this franchise is being built around. Bruce has the potential to hit 40 homeruns a year. Then again Adam Dunn hit 40 homeruns a year for the Reds and that didn't get them to the postseason. Like Dunn, Bruce strikes out a lot. In fact, Bruce struck out nearly one in every four times he went to the plate. Still, at only 20 years of age, there is reason for the Reds to be excited about Bruce.
Bruce is joined in the outfield by ex-Rockie Willy Taveras in centerfield while Chris Dickerson and Norris Hopper will platoon in left.
The Reds aren't ready for the post-season but they will improve in 2009.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have not enjoyed a winning season since 1992. They have finished in the basement of the NL Central for the past two seasons and three of the last four. I don't believe the Pirates will win 81 games in 2009 but I do believe they will get out of the cellar.
But it won't be easy. The starting rotation resembles a jazz quintet; it's strictly improvisational. Paul Maholm led the staff with 9 wins in 2008 and is the de facto ace. Who will join him? Take your pick. Ian Snell, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf, Phil Dumatrait, Jeff Karstens and ex-Indian Shawn Nottingham are all possibilities. We could also hear from Tom Gorzelanny before the season is out.
The bullpen is actually decent with Matt Capps doing a nice job as the closer with 21 saves. John Grabow, Craig Hansen, Tyler Yates and lefty Sean Burnett will get a lot (and I mean a lot) of work but should be up to the task. Ryan Doumit acquitted himself well enough to become the Pirates number one catcher last season.
Brothers Adam and Andy LaRoche occupy the corners at first and third, respectively. Freddy Sanchez is back at second base although the 2006 NL batting champion's offensive numbers slipped in 2008. Jack Wilson enters his ninth season as the Pirates shortstop.
All-Star Nate McLouth leads an outfield consisting of Brandon Moss and the speedy Nyjer Morgan. Look for Morgan to have the kind of breakout season that McLouth enjoyed in 2008. Eric Hinske will provide a veteran bat off the bench.
I expect the Pirates to make a few moves during the season and to catch fire after the All-Star break. They will catch enough fire for a fourth place finish the NL Central.
The Milwaukee Brewers made it to the post-season in 2008 for the first time in 26 years.
The biggest impact player in the major leagues wasn't Manny Ramirez in a Dodgers uniform. It was C.C. Sabathia in a Brewers uniform. If not for Sabathia taking the mound every fifth day there is no way the Brewers win the NL Wild Card. Now with both Sabathia and Ben Sheets gone new manager Ken Macha is going to have a tall task before him. There was a lot of turmoil in the clubhouse when Ned Yost was canned with less than two weeks left in the regular season. Although interim manager Dale Sveum regrouped the team enough to make the post-season he didn't inspire enough confidence in the front office to lead on the field this season.
Veteran Jeff Suppan and ex-Cardinal Braden Looper are serviceable pitchers but they aren't Sabathia and Sheets. Yovani Gallardo has the potential to be another Sabathia or Sheets but he isn't ready to do it this season. Dave Bush and Manny Parra aren't number one starters either.
The bullpen is no less unsettled. The Brew Crew signed all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman but the former Padres legend will begin the season on the DL with an oblique injury. The closer is anyone's guess – Carlos Villaneuva, Mike DiFelice, Seth McClung, the oft injured and aptly named David Riske, the wild and well traveled Jorge Julio and Todd Coffey. Catcher Jason Kendal is going to have a long season behind the plate.
The Brewers offense will continue to be good with powerhouses like Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Along with Fielder, J.J. Hardy and Rickie Weeks are good up the middle although Bill Hall struggled with a .225 average in 2008 and has not regained his 2006 form when he belted 35 homeruns. Braun has good compatriots in the outfield with veteran Mike Cameron and Corey Hart, who as far as I know does not wear sunglasses at night. Mike Lamb, Craig Counsell and Tony Gwynn, Jr. make for a versatile bench.
However, the Brewers offense does not make up for their pitching and they will learn that the hard way in 2009.
On the other hand, Houston Astros manager Cecil Cooper might wish he was back in a Brewers uniform.
The Astros have one of the best pitchers in baseball in Roy Oswalt. But there's a big drop off after Oswalt's turn in the rotation with the likes of Wandy Rodriguez and Brian Moehler. The injury-prone Mike Hampton is trying yet another comeback as is Russ Ortiz. The Astros are his fourth big league organization since 2005. Journeyman Jose Capellan will likely get a shot in the rotation.
Jose Valverde is a rock solid closer who has led the NL in saves for two straight seasons. Geoff Geary, Tim Byrdak, LaTroy Hawkins and 41-year-old Doug Brocail make for a veteran but dependable bullpen.
Lance Berkman is the team's offensive leader but his shoulder is giving him trouble. Can Miguel Tejada bridge the gap? Kaz Matsui is hoping for a healthier 2009 after missing more than two months due to various injuries. Geoff Blum is adequate at third.
The Astros outfield is good with the speedy Michael Bourn in center, the powerful Carlos Lee and potential NL batting champ Hunter Pence in right. Veterans Darin Erstad and Jason Michaels round out the outfield.
The Astros pitching is simply too thin for them to contend in the NL Central this season and they are thin in homegrown talent.
NL West
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks#
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
# – denotes NL Wild Card winner
The San Francisco Giants have the best starting rotation in MLB. 2008 NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum is joined by Matt Cain and a triumvirate of lefties in former Cy Young winners Barry Zito and Randy Johnson as well as Jonathan Sanchez. Zito had a strong second half after a horrible 2007 and horrible first half of 2008. Look for him to continue to rebound in 2009. Noah Lowry might make his presence known after missing all of 2008 with forearm trouble.
Brian Wilson got around the league as the Giants' new closer. The addition of ex-Cub Bobby Howry and ex-Rockie Jeremy Affeldt will be of tremendous help to Wilson.
The Giants pitching staff could not ask for a better catcher than Bengie Molina.
The Giants infield, on the other hand, is a grand experiment. Aside from ex-Tiger Edgar Renteria, the infield is unknown outside their immediate families. Pablo Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa are the new corner men at third and first with Emmanuel Burriss starting at second base. Veteran Juan Uribe will be of some help here.
The outfield has more of a veteran presence with Randy Winn in right field and Aaron Rowand in center. Look for Rowand to rebound after a disappointing first season with the Giants in 2008. But the player to look out for is left fielder Fred Lewis. He has the speed. He has the defense. Look for him to add power to his game in 2009. Look for him to be the most improved player in MLB this season.
Despite an inexperienced infield the pitching might be enough to return manager Bruce Bochy to the World Series.
2008 must have been very difficult for Arizona Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin. The D'Backs jumped out of the gate last season, winning 21 of their first 30 games. However, they would fade and not make it to the post-season in 2008. Adam Dunn could not do for Arizona what Manny Ramirez did in Chavez Ravine.
The Diamondbacks might have the best one-two punch in baseball with Brandon Webb and Danny Haren at the top of the starting rotation. The addition of former Angel Jon Garland gives the D'Backs another pitcher at or near their caliber. Dependable lefty Doug Davis is the number four starter while Yusmeiro Petit will get an opportunity to be the number five man.
Look for Chad Qualls to be the closer with the departure of Brandon Lyon. Although ex-Phillie Tom Gordon might get some save opportunities. Jon Rauch, Tony Pena and veteran lefty Scott Schoeneweis round out the pen. Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero are a dependable pair behind the plate.
Chad Tracy, Mark Reynolds and Stephen Drew return to the D'Backs infield with ex-Washington National Felipe Lopez taking over at second base. Every team needs an Augie Ojeda in the infield.
Conor Jackson, Justin Upton and Chris Young are not even in their prime. However, Eric Byrnes is the heart and soul of the team and his presence is sorely needed after missing much of the year with problems in both hamstrings. Tony Clark also provides veteran leadership.
After their slow disintegration in 2008, the Diamondbacks have something to prove in 2009.
The mere presence of Manny Ramirez in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup will not automatically earn them a post-season spot. Take it from a Red Sox fan. The Dodgers have not had to deal with Manny over a full season. In 2009, Joe Torre will see both the good and the bad of Manny and the team.
Chad Billingsley had a break out season with 16 wins. But the rest of the starting rotation is a hit or miss proposition with Hiroki Kuroda, Clay Kershaw and veteran lefty Randy Wolf. As both Jason Schmidt and Claudio Vargas are on the DL, look for Jeff Weaver to be the number five starter. If your team has to rely on Jeff Weaver then look out.
Jonathan Broxton did an adequate job as the Dodgers closer late last season but faltered in the post-season. Cory Wade or Hong-Chih Kuo might end up with the job before season's end. Guillermo Mota returns to the Dodgers in a middle relief role. Tanyon Sturtze and Will Ohman will likely toil in the bullpen as well.
The infield looks reasonably good with James Loney at first, ex-D'Back Orlando Hudson at second, Rafael Furcal at short and Casey Blake at third. The Dodgers signed Furcal to a three-year contract. When he's healthy he is good but the problem is Furcal is not often healthy. Perhaps they will keep Blake DeWitt around just in case. Doug Mientkiewicz and Mark Loretta will come in handy as veterans off the bench.
Manny Ramirez is joined in the outfield by Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Juan Pierre will be kept around to fill in for Manny for late inning defense.
Manny will be Manny no doubt. But over an entire season a team needs more than one player to win. That won't be enough especially with the pitching the Giants and Diamondbacks have to offer.
After winning the NL championship in 2007, Clint Hurdle and the Colorado Rockies came down to earth in 2008. It will be a long climb back to the top.
The Rockies will have to do without Jeff Francis in 2009 due to shoulder troubles. The starting four, however, isn't bad with the likes of Aaron Cook, Usvaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales and Jason Marquis. But they are not great either. The number five man will be either Greg Smith or Jorge De La Rosa.
With Brian Fuentes now an Angel, Manny Corpas and ex-Athletic Huston Street are competing for the closer's job. Taylor Buchholz might be one of the most underrated middle relievers in the game. Jason Grilli and veteran lefty Alan Embree also comprise an average bullpen. Last season, Chris Ianetta supplanted Yorvit Torrealba as the Rockies number one catcher.
Todd Helton missed nearly half of last season with back problems. Troy Tulowitzki had a disappointing sophomore season which gave both Jeff Baker and Clint Barmes more playing time. Ian Stewart appears to be ready as the everyday third baseman, making Garrett Atkins expendable.
Ex-Athletic Carlos Gonzalez has an opportunity to become the Rockies franchise player in centerfield. Brad Hawpe, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs and another ex-Athletic, Matt Murton, will rotate in the corner outfield positions.
2007 seems so very long ago.
After narrowly missing the post-season in 2007 everything came apart for Bud Black and the San Diego Padres in 2008. Humpty Dumpty will not be put back together in 2009.
The Padres do have two strong starting pitchers at the top of the rotation in Jake Peavy and Chris Young. But then Peavy and Young and bite your tongue. Cha Seung Baek is your number three starter and the next two slots are open questions. Lefties Cesar Ramos and Wade LeBlanc are candidates as are ex-Nationals starter Shawn Hill and one-time Cubs great Mark Prior.
Now that Trevor Hoffman is gone after more than 15 years, Heath Bell has the unenviable task of replacing him. Cla Meredith was a disappointment after a stellar season in 2007 although Mike Adams was impressive and Mark Worrell has some promise. Young Nick Hundley and veteran Henry Blanco will platoon behind the plate.
The Padres do have a genuine power hitter in Adrian Gonzalez at first base. His brother, Edgar, plays at second although he will compete for playing time with Everth Cabrera. Veteran David Eckstein will replace Khalil Greene at short and Kevin Kouzmanoff returns for another season at third.
Brian Giles also returns as the Padres' everyday right fielder. The outfield also includes Jody Gerut, Scott Hairston, Chase Headley and ex-Tampa Bay Ray Cliff Floyd.
Do not be surprised if both Peavy and Gonzalez are traded before the end of July.
Other NL Predictions
NL Rookie of the Year – John Mayberry, Jr, Philadelphia Phillies
NL Cy Young Award – Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
NL Most Valuable Player – Fred Lewis, San Francisco Giants
2009 Post Season Predictions
ALDS – Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins. Red Sox win 3-1.
ALDS – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Tampa Bay Rays. Rays win 3-1.
ALCS – Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays. Red Sox win 4-3.
NLDS – Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs. Diamondbacks win 3-0.
NLDS – Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants. Giants win 3-2.
NLCS – Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants. Giants win 4-2.
2009 World Series – Boston Red Sox vs. San Francisco Giants. Giants win 4-3.
And there you have it for another year. Maybe this year I'll get it right.
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