Ronald Reagan knocked out Carter in November 1980. But it was Ted Kennedy who struck the first blow.

In the days following the passing of Senator Edward Kennedy there were many references to the closing of his most famous speech at the 1980 Democratic National Convention in New York City:

For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die.

President Obama, in his eulogy of Senator Kennedy, spoke of "the dream he kept alive."

Yet Kennedy would never have uttered that phrase if he hadn't challenged a sitting President of the United States. It was, after all, a concession speech to Jimmy Carter.  Ronald Reagan knocked out Carter in November 1980. But it was Ted Kennedy who struck the first blow.

One cannot help but wonder what was going through the mind of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as she watched President Obama eulogize Kennedy in Boston's Mission Hill Church. President Obama should be wondering too but it is hard to say if he is. He certainly isn't following the advice of Michael Corleone in The Godfather, Part II of keeping his friends close and his enemies closer. If he were he wouldn't be sending Hillary to the Congo to let her stew in her resentment. 

If Kennedy couldn't abide the way Carter addressed high unemployment and double digit inflation, how much longer will Hillary abide the way President Obama is dealing with high unemployment and health care reform? It certainly won't be much longer if Obama's poll numbers continue to decline. Hillary holds a key position inside the Obama Administration and his shortcomings reflect poorly on her. 

To add insult to injury, Hillary has been excluded from key foreign policy matters concerning the Israelis and Palestinians as well as in Afghanistan and Pakistan, despite her protestations to the contrary. It is also believed President Obama favors the advice of the National Security Council over the State Department. It didn't help matters when Hillary sustained a broken right elbow in a fall en route to the White House last June.  But there's no 15-day disabled list in Washington, unless you play for the Nationals. 

Come to think of it, Hillary would probably get more respect playing for the lowly Nationals. In July, Tina Brown of The Daily Beast described Hillary as "the invisible woman at State." She went on to write, "It's time for Barack Obama to let Clinton take off her burqa."  

Yet it is in President Obama's interests to keep Hillary happy. Otherwise why should Hillary support an administration where she has no stake in its success? If Democrats do badly in mid-term elections don't expect Hillary to stay aboard the Titanic. Remember women and children first.

The bottom line is if Obama doesn't give Hillary a more meaningful role in his administration she could become to him what Ted Kennedy became to Jimmy Carter and perhaps worse. After all, Kennedy was challenging Carter as the senior Senator from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. If Hillary were to challenge President Obama she would do so as a former senior Cabinet Secretary. It would be something that hasn't been done in this country since James G. Blaine, also a Secretary of State, successfully challenged Chester Arthur for the Republican nomination in 1884 (before going on to lose to Grover Cleveland that fall). Such a challenge would be one of the most significant developments in recent American political history and could become a blotch on Obama's legacy. Now this doesn't mean Hillary would be any more successful against President Obama in 2012 than she was in 2008. But even if she doesn't prevail she would succeed in damaging his presidency as Kennedy's challenge harmed Carter. 

Of course, political fortunes shift with the wind. Six months from now Obama could be ascending to new heights in the polls. In which case, it would be in Hillary's interests to hold her peace. But so long as Hillary is relegated to dancing in Kenya she will be contemplating her next move watching the winds blow. In which case Obama had better step around her lightly and wear a windbreaker. Otherwise Hurricane Hillary is coming.