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An Eye on the Edge
by Dan Glanz
11 November 2003Iranian Flag

Iran may be the next target of the coalition of the willing.

Are you ready?  The Press will be agape!  Daschle will rush to the floor!  Dean will call for the return of … everything!  Kerry will wave his fatigues … yet again. 

In the coming days, you will hear this everywhere. 

First, Mohammad El Baradei will gather his IAEA council in executive session to discuss something of immense proportion.

He will tell those folks that Iran has had a secret nuclear program for several years, which they lied about to anyone and everyone, including El Baradei himself.  He will pass around the signed confession of the Iranian Government.

The IAEA will vote to sanction Iran.

Immediately, the UN Security Council will go into Emergency Session to sanction Iran.  They will vote UNANIMOUSLY to embargo Iranian oil.

The Coalition armada is sitting out there slumbering.  They are now positioning themselves for this blockade.

You would think, if you watch the global economy, that China would have vetoed such a measure because virtually all the oil in Asia comes from Iran.  Listen to this …

Israeli Prime Minister Sharon conferred with President Bush in June.  Sharon has also been to Russia several times — the latest just last week.  He has been to China (June) and India (Sept).  Bush has been to China and Russia (May) as well.  Bush also met with Jordan, Egypt and Qatar in May.  Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz was in Japan in May.  Putin has met all these players as well.  The 6-way talks regarding North Korea were lightly reported, but successful.

If you are following this cast of characters … wait just a moment more, and I will tie it altogether.

There is, you should remember, an oil pipeline that runs from Iran (the Red Sea) across Israel to the Port of Ashkelon.  (Ashkelon has that huge electric generating station that will figure in a future column so remember it.)  Out in the deepwater port of Ashkelon is an oil station capable of loading/unloading supertankers (VLCC – millions of barrels).  This Trans Israel Pipeline used to send oil from the Shah’s Iran to the Mediterranean and has been unused in all these years.  The Israelis, in the past several months have been feverishly restoring this pipeline to usable condition … to transport oil from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea.  Got all that straight? 

Here’s the deal.  At this very moment, a Russian VLCC is heading to the Port of Ashkelon (Sharon met Putin) where it will offload that oil into the TIP. The Trans Israel Pipeline will send it the other way to the Red Sea, where it will be loaded onto other supertankers. This will then supply China (Sharon in June, Bush in May & October) and India (Sharon in September) and Japan (Wolfowitz in May). 

The Asian countries would not be so receptive of such a plan, except they see the whole of the plan.  Each of them has said they would like to be out from under the thumb of the Arab oil cartel.  This is Russian oil.  Normally more expensive because in part, of the huge transport costs, is now competitive because the Israeli connection makes the trip in just 10 days.  They have oil, they are happy.

Iran, which we know has been funding the attacks on the American GI’s in Iraq and funding the Hezbollah attacks in Israel, now has no money coming in.  They can no longer afford to pay those handsome sums to out-of-work Palestinians and Iraqi soldiers for their mischief.  That will stop.  The Iranians will have no money to buy food.

YOU are gonna pay more for gasoline … for a month or so.

By January, the young Iranian cognoscenti already see the freer life in Iraq.  They remember the pre-Ayatollah days.  With no food and no money in the country, these educated masses are going to depose the mullahs.  Once that happens, the embargo will come down, Iranian oil will flow … Can you smell $15/barrel oil?

Dan Glanz is a contributor to TooGood Reports and his weekly column is seen in newspapers across the country

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