During her Senate
confirmation hearings, Secretary of State-designate Condoleezza Rice expressed
her views about Iran's ruling mullahs, appropriately calling Iran one of
the “outposts of tyranny” in the world. Her comments were a welcome sign
that a sound and effectual Iran policy may be emerging in the coming months.
Responding to questions from two Senators known for their pro-appeasement
views on policy toward Tehran, Dr. Rice repeatedly emphasized that there
is no “common ground” with the regime in Iran.
"This is just a regime that has a really very different view of the Middle
East and where the world is going than we do," including an "appalling" human
rights record, Dr. Rice said.
It is
no secret that successive American administrations have been bedeviled by
how to formulate a sound policy toward Iran’s ruling theocratic dictatorship.
A range of policies from unilateral concession to containment have been tried
to crack this policy conundrum. They have been either ineffective or simply
backfired, resulting in a more impudent Tehran.
There is almost total agreement in various policy circles that Iran’s nuclear
weapons program, its support of terrorism and its destabilizing campaign
in Iraq pose a clear and present danger. But a review of what’s on the table
makes it clear that when it comes to substance, no matter which of the proposed
approaches becomes the much-anticipated policy direction of the second Bush
administration on Iran, the US will still end up suffering from an Iran policy
paralysis.
The appeasement camp -- which despite the repeated failure of this policy
in all its variations over the past two decades, still presses for a new
round of engagement -- has nothing to build its case on except the other
camp’s failure to make a feasible argument to support its “regime change”
proposal.
In a nutshell, the engagement camp contends that although Tehran is immensely
unpopular and loathed by Iranians, it is “well-entrenched.” And with the
military option for a regime change or otherwise certain to fail, the argument
goes, the only chance for success is engagement based on an incentive package.
The regime-change camp correctly dismisses this line of reasoning and instead
sees the removal of this regime as the only effective solution. It, however,
fails to articulate how this regime change would come about in order to achieve
its intended objective.
To be sure, the Iraqi-style invasion of Iran does not constitute a viable
solution. There are some in this camp who vaguely talk about regime change
from within by the Iranian people, but offer no concrete ideas. Nor do they
outline how the anti-regime democracy movement inside Iran could be helped
politically and diplomatically in a constructive, meaningful and realistic
way.
The fact is that neither engagement nor military invasion is the answer.
The only viable policy toward Iran would be the one which at its core recognizes
that a change of regime in Iran should and could be achieved only by relying
on the Iranian people and the organized opposition that has been challenging
the regime for the past quarter century.
This policy should also articulate the practical means by which the United
States would use its diplomatic and economic might to help the democratic
opposition in Iran. Washington’s support, if done in a serious, transparent,
and meaningful manner, is not going to be a “kiss of death” for the opposition
as some experts fear.
That said, this support must by necessity include reaching out to anti-fundamentalist
Iranian opposition groups who have been fighting for a secular and representative
government in Iran. A meaningful first step would be to end the terrorist
designation of Iran’s main opposition group, the People’s Mujahedeen (MEK),
which has significant organizational discipline and capability as an actor
of change and is singularly dedicated to unseating Tehran’s tyrants.
In a recent appearance at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington,
Ambassador Mark Palmer, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and currently
a member of Committee on the Present Danger, remarked that: “Whatever the
history of the MEK… the fact that Khomeini ended up executing tens of thousands
of MEK people, and that the MEK was able to organize an army demonstrates
that this is a serious opposition… I think [that] goes without question…
And if serious people in the CIA and elsewhere come to the conclusion that
it is not today a terrorist group, we should de-list them and work with them.”
As Washington is grasping the sheer extent of the destructive and multi-faceted
threat Iran poses to the well-being of Iranians and to the security and stability
of the region, it should recognize that the call of Iranians for regime change
must be heeded and the door to engagement must be shut. There is a great
chance to crush this “outpost of tyranny” from within. It should not be squandered.
The US Alliance for Democratic Iran
is a US-based, independent, non-profit policy advocacy organization, which
aims to advance a US policy in support of Iranian people’s aspirations for
a democratic, secular, and peaceful government.
Email USADI
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