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Leasing The American Dream
by Noel Sheppard
14 March 2005
According
to information compiled by Freddie Mac and the U.S. Census Bureau, Americans
have been aggressively tapping into the equity in their homes the past four
years at totally unprecedented rates.
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Remember the concept
“Owning a piece of the American Dream?” That goal you had when you
graduated from college to eventually own your own home?
Well, some recently released statistics suggest that although the percentage
of homeowners in our nation is at an all-time high, the preponderance of
interest-only and home equity loans is creating a society of baby boomers
that might never actually achieve this dream. Maybe even more concerning
is that these home “lessees” don’t seem to mind. As reported by The Sacramento Bee:
‘Folks
paying off their loans and owning their homes free and clear is becoming
increasingly a dim memory,’ said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates,
a mortgage research firm in New Jersey. ‘Someone in their 40s who has refinanced
into a new, 30-year term has realistically signed themselves on for a mortgage
until they are actuarially (likely to be) dead. It's the mortgage in perpetuity.’
To be
more specific, according to information compiled by Freddie Mac and the U.S.
Census Bureau, Americans have been aggressively tapping into the equity in
their homes the past four years at totally unprecedented rates. As
a result, the debt-to-value percentages for all age groups have been skyrocketing.
Of particular concern is what is happening within the soon-to-be-retired
age bracket from 55 to 64-year olds. Here, as of the data collected
through 2003, the average homeowner still owes 24.5% of his/her home’s value.
This compares to 16.1% just two decades earlier.
What this means is that rather than setting themselves up for retirement
by paying off indebtedness, the first wave of baby boomers is increasing
such liens. Without a doubt, one would be hard-pressed to find a qualified
estate or financial planner who would liken such behavior to sound economic
thinking.
So, what’s causing this problem? Well, as mortgage rates have plummeted
in the past several years to near record levels while real estate prices
have conversely escalated, Americans have taken advantage of this condition
by removing more and more of the equity from their properties through new
and ever-creative financing opportunities offered to them by banks and lending
institutions.
To be sure, much of the moneys accessed through such activities have made
their way back into the economy through consumer purchases as well as additional
real estate investments. Fortuitously, as has been addressed by Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in multiple testimonies in front of Congress
the past few years, such purchases have played a pivotal role in the economy’s
recovery since the fourth quarter of 2001.
However, regardless of the economically stimulative impact, one has to question
when we became a society of renters instead of owners. Is this potentially
just a logical extension of the auto lease boom that began in the 80’s, picked
up steam in the 90’s, and has shown no discernible signs of abating?
Regardless of the answer, it now appears that this same concept has morphed
into the real estate market, creating a whole generation of homeowners who
more closely resemble habitual lessees in as much as they never completely
eliminate -- or in many cases even reduce -- the debt level on their properties.
Again from the Bee:
Forty-five
percent of homeowners who refinanced between early 2001 and the first half
of 2002 pulled cash out, and 74 percent wound up with more years on their
mortgage -- six more years, on average -- according to the most recent Federal
Reserve household survey. Just 17 percent of those who refinanced chose to
shorten the loan term, usually choosing a 15-year mortgage.
Adding
it all up, with savings rates at multi-decade lows, and Social Security facing
a crisis -- depending of course upon which political party you believe --
it appears that many Americans are mishandling their real estate debt with
equally poor skill as they manage the rest of their finances. Certainly,
this shouldn’t surprise us, for citizens are likely just emulating the fiscal
indiscipline of their elected officials in Washington as well as in state
legislatures across the country.
Consequently, as much as our economy has become dependent upon this new iteration
of the “Triangle Trade” -- in this case, rather than “Molasses to Rum to
Slaves,” it’s “Appreciation to Loans to Purchases” -- the baby boomer is
now similarly hooked. In fact, as most of the soon-to-be-retired crowd
is likely banking on selling their homes to purchase smaller, retirement
properties down the road with enough left over to meet the rest of their
expenses, what happens if this equation ends up not working?
After all, the formula for successful retirement used to be the reduction
of recurring monthly expenses that affords one the ability to live on less
income than while one was employed. Given this, if baby boomers continue
to have mortgage payments well into their sixties and seventies, unless real
estate prices just continue to appreciate ad infinitum with nary a decline in value, how will they ever be able to retire?
Noel Sheppard is a business owner, economist, and writer residing in Northern California.
Email Noel Sheppard
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